No WW1; Austria-Hungary disintegrates

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
I am never one of the school who think that the disolution of the Habsburg empire was inevitable, but by the same token I do not believe that its survival was assured either.

I've been reading some very interesting examples of Russian strategic and military thought in "Russia And The Origins of The First World War' by DCB Lieven (MacMillan, 1983, ISBN 0-333-28370-8)

One train of thought was that upon the disintegration of Austria-Hungary, the German Empire would make a move for the German-speaking parts and the great powers of Europe would be likely to agree, but require the return of Alsace-Lorraine to France

Now, let's run with that idea. Where would it lead ?

Grey Wolf
 
Germany would probably insist that Alsace-Lorraine be demilitarized--no forts, no artillery and a limit on the number of troops that can be stationed there.
French hostility to Germany is greatly reduced--though Clemenceau might grumble about the demilitarized zone terms. The Austria annexed by Germany would not include Tyrolia--so Italy is happy. So Western Europe becomes stable. Eastern Europe though has plenty of tension. There is some potential for Germany/Russia war--which would be bad for Russia's health.
For that reason this war is say 50/50.

Other wild cards. Does Austria have a King like Bavaria--I think so. Does the Catholic Party become a mischief maker in German politics, now that it has reinforcements? Is the power of the Hohenzollern Kaiser reduced? Does Tirpitz always get what he wants? Without France going to war with Germany how does mounting British fear of German economic and naval power find an outlet?

There is some chance of a German-Japanese war in this TL too.

Tom
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Interesting comments and some good questions :)

I should very much imagine that Austria is going to be a kingdom within the empire, under the Habsburg king - this is potentially a source for destabilisation but could perhaps be balanced. There are other movements within the German Empire that could shift power, such as reconstituting Hannover upon the death of the Duke of Cumberland and giving it as a kingdom to Ernst August, Duke of Brunswick and the Kaiser's son-in-law. In addition, if Austria is taken to mean 'everything that isn't Hungary' as was usually the case in the Dual Monarchy then this would bring the separate Kingdom of Bohemia into the German Empire; would it be spun off from Austria under a different Habsburg, perhaps established as an autonomous sub-kingdom as Kent was to Wessex ? One could imagine Franz Ferdinand as King of Austria and Karl as his heir being made King of Bohemia under him. This would keep the lands in the Habsburg family but diminish their ability to weild too much power against the Prussian influence

What happens to Galicia ? Personally I think it may be ceded to Russia as a price of her acquiescence but probably with the requirement to reconstitute an autonomous Poland.

If the Southern Tyrol is ceded to Italy, what will the German Empire do about Trieste ? I could imagine Tirpitz would be very keen indeed to keep it, not least because if it isn't kept then the Austrian fleet ends up either as a Hungarian fleet or as so much scrap metal, having to be moved to the Baltic, ceded to Italy or - perhaps of some worry in Berlin - ending up in Serbian hands if Serbia moves into Bosnia-Hercegovina. Interestingly within Russia there was a strand of pan-Slavism related to the Montenegrin Grand Duchesses which supported Montenegro annexing Bosnia-Hercegovina. Whilst one doubts Serbia would allow this, one could perhaps see a partition of the province between the two with interesting effects later on

Grey Wolf
 

Susano

Banned
We do assume here that the German Empire would be willing to give up Alsace-Lorraine in return for Austria. That is a very daring asusmption, to say at least, IMO. Of course, if Germany sees that not one ally is left in Europe, even Willy-2 might consider avoiding a war.
Although they could bribe Russia and Italy (or even Serbia!) with Italian Territory.In that war scenraio there would be France and Great Britain against Germany, Russia, Italy and the remnaints of Austria-Hungary (and some Balkan states) - a combination that could maybe bring the states that were IOTL neutral but germany-friendly (Scandinavia and the Netherlands) on the german side. This could be enough to beat UK and France, but it would still be a world war of course.

Or, war is avoided, in which case I still think that Germany would stress ist terriotorial integrity and not give away Alsace-Lorraine, rather setting up the "Core Austria" and Bohenmia and Moravia as vasall states, with nominal independance.
 
"war is avoided, in which case I still think that Germany would stress ist terriotorial integrity and not give away Alsace-Lorraine"

How would ceding Alsace-Lorraine (very small land area) in exchange for Austria, perhaps Slovenia (Trieste), and a few knick-knacks here of there (large land area and population) be oppositional to Germany's "territorial integrity"? Sure the border would change a little, but the unified German state will continue to exist and would become more powerful (unless the influx of Catholics in the south causes political destabilization), esp. with a port on the Adriatic.
 
Hmmm, I can see A-H chopped up but a rump Austria surviving as an independent state - perhaps as a second Switzerland which uses it's geographical location to host international conferences and other fora. Hungary keeps its territory and helps administrate the new nations of Croatia and Slovenia - rather than ceding Bosnia to Serbia. Bohemia-Moravia is an independent state under nominal German control. Russia gets Ruthenia as an offering. France to regain Alsace-Lorraine.

There will be no world war for at least another 50 years - although there will be a trade war between the UK & allies and Germany & allies. The USA, given it's historic ties with the UK, will unofficially take that side and both trading blocs become very protectionist.

Britain and Germany also agree to partition Portugal's colonies between themselves with Mozambique, Goa and Macao going to Britain whilst the Germans take the rest, (Angola, Guinea and another...).

Russia and Turkey go to war over Armenia as the Sultan insists on a bit of ethnic cleansing in that area. Germany orders the Sultan to back down but is fearful of a general European war so refrains from actual military action. Economic pressure applied to both sides forces a stalemate as Russia is still dependent on French assistance. Armenia is granted independence whilst the Ottoman Empire undergoes internal reorganisation. Ataturk is a leading figure in this reorganisation but the Sultan is not overthrown.
 

Susano

Banned
Maybe we have word definition problems, but I define "territorial integrity" as "keeping current borders", at least in the sense of "not losing land". At least that is how I always use the word in German, heh.

And what country would really give up land, to its archenemy nonetheless, when it can have the lands it can possibly aquire as vasall states, too?
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
There was always a strong under-current of pan-Germanism within Austria, especially from the creation of the German Empire in 1870. It was sat upon quite hard by Franz Josef but even he couldn't prevent crowds cheering Kaiser Wilhelm II on his visit. You only have to consider Hitler's views and actions to see this in action, he hated the decadence of the Habsburgs, refused to do military service for them and moved to Bavaria from where pan-Germanism could be seen as a more vibrant and unifying force.

Therefore, whatever the wishes of Franz Ferdinand I don't think Austria is going to be allowed to make her own choice and decision in this.

Slovenian nationalism is not strong in this period, and I cannot see much chance of Slovenia even attempting to go it alone rather than remain as part of Austria.

There is more chance for Croatia to try to break free from Hungary but that way lies the whole potential for European war, and I think the best the Croats can hope for is a semi-autonomous existence under Hungary with some kind of outside guarantee.

I wondered whether Bohemia would be allowed to become independent but it seemed least likely, because even from the Russians' point of view to allow the creation of a new state in the middle of Europe would undermine the idea of their dominance over the Poles, especially, and others to a lesser degree. Galicia and Bukovina (which includes Ruthenia) would probably be enough of a sop to Russia to let them see Bohemia incorporated into the German Empire. After all, in great power terms there's no massive change as Austria-Hungary had been tied to Germany for so long anyway.

I can see the Portuguese empire's division going ahead. I don't think it will include Macao, but the African possessions are certainly up for consideration. This may in itself serve to defuse Anglo-German tensions on the world stage, at least for a while

As for the Ottoman Empire there is no reason for an Armenian uprising, let alone an Ottoman response to one. It is interesting to read in the book I quoted that the problem with the Armenians was viewed within Russia at the time as being between the Armenians and the Kurds, which if you look at what happened in OTL's WW1 can clearly be seen to be the facts on the ground. Unless the Russian Empire is about to try some military adventure then I doubt anything at all will happen with regard to the Armenians

In this period there is a growing Russian economy. It was recognised within France that by the late 1920s Russia will not be dependent on French loans to any meaningful degree, but it was already recognised by 1912 or so that the loans whilst very useful in furthering French interests (eg in financing the railroad and railheads that Russia would need to take to the field at once in the event of war) could no longer be used as a weapon to hold the Russian government to account with. Partly this was because the Russian military had become fully committed to the alliance with France and the joint plans anyway so the question of using loans as a lever had become somewhat irrelevant in these issues, but it was also seen that Russia was growing stronger in economics, military and confidence and it would be counter-productive to try to coerce an ally with threats

Grey Wolf
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Susano said:
Maybe we have word definition problems, but I define "territorial integrity" as "keeping current borders", at least in the sense of "not losing land". At least that is how I always use the word in German, heh.

And what country would really give up land, to its archenemy nonetheless, when it can have the lands it can possibly aquire as vasall states, too?

A drastic rewriting of the map of central Europe is going to need great power approval, which in essence means it is going to need that of the Triple Entente as Russia is by this time completely tied into it. To try to gain everything without this approval would probably result in war, as Tom B indicates.

Also, Alsace-Lorraine has never been properly tied into the German Empire, it remains that odd construct in a federal empire, an imperial fief. Plans to create it as an Grand Duchy have fallen flat, and it is administered centrally by the empire.

Whilst retrocession would be painful, the gains made in exchange for this would be significant - great power approval for the annexation of Austria and Bohemia, the lessening of tensions with the French, and a colonial settlement that would be voiced in terms of direct compensation. Whilst a lot of the latter may well include the Portuguese colonies, there would have to be some cessions by Britain and France, and to be honest where the return of Alsace-Lorraine is concerned, Germany has something of a good bargaining hand. As well as cession by Britain of eg Zanzibar, France may well be forced to give Germany equal status within Morocco

Grey Wolf
 

Susano

Banned
Even in imperial Germany, always portrayed (maybe even rightfully so) as hungry for colonies, homeland was seen as more important than colonies. And even if Alsace-Lorraine was administered cenrtally by the empire itself, it was certainly considered homeland.

Of course, alsace-lorraien against austria and bohemia is a good deal. But IMO, keeping alsace-lorraine and set up austria and bohemia as vasall states is an even better deal. Of couse, if the german government sees this ismilarily, or sees it as you do, is another question.

And just how much was russia tied into the triple entente? Could it be, maybe, bribed with austro-hungarian territory?
 
ljofa[COLOR=DarkGreen said:
Russia and Turkey go to war over Armenia as the Sultan insists on a bit of ethnic cleansing in that area. Germany orders the Sultan to back down but is fearful of a general European war so refrains from actual military action. Economic pressure applied to both sides forces a stalemate as Russia is still dependent on French assistance. Armenia is granted independence whilst the Ottoman Empire undergoes internal reorganisation. Ataturk is a leading figure in this reorganisation but the Sultan is not overthrown.[/COLOR]

The Sultan's efforts were to keep the religious balance in the empire stable. To this end joint commissions were created with the Greeks and Armenians to prevent Protestant missionaries from "recruiting" orphans. The Armenian Massacres that occured in the 1890s were the result of an Armenian uprising in protest of the protection money being extorted out of them by Kurdish chieftains and the Ottoman government's inability to prevent this. The Armenians got the poor end of the resulting ethnic conflict, until the Ottoman Army was moved in to put an end to the violence - please see the 1911 Britannica for an account of this, there is also a British source that alludes me at the moment but I'll find it if you like.

The Germans were in no position to order the Ottomans to do anything, and prior to the CUP coup in 1913 German influence in the Ottoman Empire was far less than Britain's or France's, and probably less than Russia's. Also, as Muslims formed a majority in Ottoman Armenia, granting autonomy would cause them to be incorporated into the Russian Empire and would result in horrific massacres of Muslims, and as this would in addition make Anatolia indefensible, the Ottoman Empire would become a puppet state of Russia, which I hardly think will be contemplated by the Powers in support of an ethnic minority that was not highly thought of at the time, and would be resisted to the death by the Ottomans, and would result in terrible bloodshed, and assuming this occurs somtime after the OTL WWI years, does not give the Russians any certainty of success.

Mustafa Kemal (later Ataturk) would have no role whatsoever in the Ottoman Empire if there had been no WWI, and the Ottomans had in any case furiously pursuing reform since 1839, which had given the empire the vitality to fight so long in WWI. Mustafa Kemal's reforms were all merely continuations of Ottoman reforms (except abolition of the Monarchy), but in many cases, he threw out the baby with the bathwater.
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Susano said:
Even in imperial Germany, always portrayed (maybe even rightfully so) as hungry for colonies, homeland was seen as more important than colonies. And even if Alsace-Lorraine was administered cenrtally by the empire itself, it was certainly considered homeland.

Of course, alsace-lorraien against austria and bohemia is a good deal. But IMO, keeping alsace-lorraine and set up austria and bohemia as vasall states is an even better deal. Of couse, if the german government sees this ismilarily, or sees it as you do, is another question.

And just how much was russia tied into the triple entente? Could it be, maybe, bribed with austro-hungarian territory?

The most Austro-Hungarian territory that Russia can get is Galicia and Bukovina. It stands at least an equal if not better chance of getting them as part of a general European settlement, than if it abandons its allies and tries to do a deal on its own

Gotta pop out for a short while :)

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Grey Wolf said:
Interesting comments and some good questions :)

I should very much imagine that Austria is going to be a kingdom within the empire, under the Habsburg king - this is potentially a source for destabilisation but could perhaps be balanced. There are other movements within the German Empire that could shift power, such as reconstituting Hannover upon the death of the Duke of Cumberland and giving it as a kingdom to Ernst August, Duke of Brunswick and the Kaiser's son-in-law. In addition, if Austria is taken to mean 'everything that isn't Hungary' as was usually the case in the Dual Monarchy then this would bring the separate Kingdom of Bohemia into the German Empire; would it be spun off from Austria under a different Habsburg, perhaps established as an autonomous sub-kingdom as Kent was to Wessex ? One could imagine Franz Ferdinand as King of Austria and Karl as his heir being made King of Bohemia under him. This would keep the lands in the Habsburg family but diminish their ability to weild too much power against the Prussian influence

What happens to Galicia ? Personally I think it may be ceded to Russia as a price of her acquiescence but probably with the requirement to reconstitute an autonomous Poland.

If the Southern Tyrol is ceded to Italy, what will the German Empire do about Trieste ? I could imagine Tirpitz would be very keen indeed to keep it, not least because if it isn't kept then the Austrian fleet ends up either as a Hungarian fleet or as so much scrap metal, having to be moved to the Baltic, ceded to Italy or - perhaps of some worry in Berlin - ending up in Serbian hands if Serbia moves into Bosnia-Hercegovina. Interestingly within Russia there was a strand of pan-Slavism related to the Montenegrin Grand Duchesses which supported Montenegro annexing Bosnia-Hercegovina. Whilst one doubts Serbia would allow this, one could perhaps see a partition of the province between the two with interesting effects later on

Grey Wolf

Austria was historically a (Grand?) Dutchy, so I wonder if it would be made a Kingdom within the German Empire, especially given the historic posistion of the Hapsburgs as Holy Roman Emperors; I would think the Hohenzollerns would resist the Hapsburgs holding such a title within the German Empire, as it would institutionalize a legitimate alternate dynasty to hold over the Kaiser's head.

I personally think that the disolution of the Hapsbug state will almost certainly cause a war - the chances of every party involved coming to agreement about its disposition seem remote; Italy, France, Germany, Hungary, Serbia, Montenegro, and Russia, plus Polish and Rumanian aspirations... Eep.

By the 1910s-1920s, I would think it difficult for Germany to surrender Alsace-Lorraine for any reason; perhaps Lorraine, but for Alsace it's difficult to imagine Germany not insisting upon a plebicite.

Galicia is a nightmare of epic proportions; how do you unite Poland without it becoming a mess? The Poles of Galicia are accustomed to great freedoms and rights that they will not receive as part of the Russian Empire - I don't see a happy ending here.

Also, I think it's easy to underestimate the instability of Russia, which could experience great internal problems even without a general war.
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Well, Bavaria, Wurttemburg and Saxony are kingdoms within the German Empire so I don't the status itself is going to be the problem

I do get your point in so far as I can make out the titles of Franz Josef for example he was Emperor of Austria, and King of Hungary and Bohemia. However, that kind of falls into the same area as the Dual Monarchy always did - that it established Hungary as an entity, but left Austria as being 'everything that isn't Hungary'. IIRC whilst Hungary had a parliament, the same one served Austria as also served the whole empire. The Habsburg possessions had grown over centuries, and the actual titles had become subsumed within that of being Emperor of Austria. One assumes that if you look to before Napoleon dissolved the Holy Roman Empire, then you find out what the titles really were, and you would I assume be correct

However, I cannot see Austria as anything but being an equal constitutionally to Bavaria within the German Empire. Anything less and Germany might as well have to conquer it as I doubt any Habsburg would agree to reign in such diminished circumstances

Grey Wolf
 

Valamyr

Banned
Alsace-Lorraine wasnt a "bargaining chip" for the Empire. Its retrocessions for advantages elsewhere was akin to the "restroession" of, say, Hannover. It would have been unacceptable to the german government and even the german people.

By taking this land in 1870, Germany had simply erased an historical wrong created at Westphalia and made the Franco-German border somewhat "fair", in their eyes.

Germany would be willing to let Italy have the italian parts including Trieste to gain an ally there (though probably not all of south tyrol, too germanized). But they would definitely seek the gain of the german regions without concessions elsewhere, and its not that certain it would lead to war. The same culture argument would have gone a LONG WAY towards making their claim unattackable.

Sure there would be tensions, but these tensions are MUCH more realistic historically than the wishy-washy "Lets all have our piece of the cake and eat it together!" scenario, if you ask me ;)

Do not forget Alsace-Lorraine also had critical defensive value to the Reich, in addition to critical economic importance thanks to the iron and the houille (no clue how to translate that) that could be found there, both important complements to the Reich's economy. In addition to this, 650,000 germans now lived there. Think, for exemple, about the rukus Gaza's 7500 jews is causing nowadays, and compound accordingly.

My point: Germany will never cede Alsace without war, and theyll never accept not to get Austria if it the empire crumbles.

This could very well lead to an alternate WW1 that is perfectly acceptable and reasonable and predictable.
 
Austria absorbed into Germany

1. The House Habsburg-Lothringen has to go, at least temporaly.
They have to use a sideline.
But given the POD, Otto von Habsburg, last Crown Prince in OTL is around, so I see him taking over like Napoleon III.

2. Austria would be a kingdom with many reserved state rights (I tried to translate Reservatrechte , more than Bavaria. So they keep the post, state railroad, seperate army, several smaller things

3. Catholicism would be so widespread in Austria, that it wouldn´t be used as a political symbol.

4. The reserved state rights would surely cover the education area, so Kulturkampf is ruled out.

5. It will lead to an influx of former Austrian-Hungarian officials in the higher echelons of civil sevice. So the overweight of the prussian state ministries will possibly be reduced.

6. Economically: In Baden and Württemberg, the textile industry would be spared the contest with the Alsace-Lothringian industry.
The Black Forest, Southern Württemberg and Bavaria would benefit from the Danube as a waterway much more.
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Regarding Alsace-Lorraine I have been reading Richard M Watt's fascinating book 'The Kings Depart' which covers from November 1918 to June 1919 and is basically an extremely detailed and well-written history of the collapse of empire, the birth of the republic, its stabilisation and the conclusion of peace with the Allies.

Regarding Alsace-Lorraine, he points out that the German government's attitude towards the provinces and the provinces' population attitude towards the German government, both indicated that the inhabitants were not see an integral to the empire, and did not see themselves in that way

"During the years 1871-1914 only twenty-five Alsatians became officers in the Prussian army. The provinces' representatives in the Reichstag usually voted against increases in the German military budgets, and in World War I the conscripts from Alsace-Lorraine made the worst soldiers in the German army - disloyal, insubordinate and with a high rate of desertion to the enemy."

Grey Wolf
 
Grey Wolf said:
Regarding Alsace-Lorraine I have been reading Richard M Watt's fascinating book 'The Kings Depart' which covers from November 1918 to June 1919 and is basically an extremely detailed and well-written history of the collapse of empire, the birth of the republic, its stabilisation and the conclusion of peace with the Allies.

Regarding Alsace-Lorraine, he points out that the German government's attitude towards the provinces and the provinces' population attitude towards the German government, both indicated that the inhabitants were not see an integral to the empire, and did not see themselves in that way

"During the years 1871-1914 only twenty-five Alsatians became officers in the Prussian army. The provinces' representatives in the Reichstag usually voted against increases in the German military budgets, and in World War I the conscripts from Alsace-Lorraine made the worst soldiers in the German army - disloyal, insubordinate and with a high rate of desertion to the enemy."

Grey Wolf

If you take them together I am not surprised at the results you mention above. However, I would guess that if you were to look at statistics for Alsace and Lorraine seperately you might find differing results; I would also be curious about how well troops from AL performed as part of France.

In any case, the actual nature of a territory has little importance when it comes to nationalist or "historical" claims. A modern example would be Kossovo, which has a 90% Albanian majority, and has had an Albanian majority for at least 500 years, yet the Serbs claim it as their heartland.
 
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