Hitler pushes too hard: The Crash of '38

As has been pointed out in many, many AHs, prewar Nazi Germany was essentially operating on a shoestring budget, with som much wealth going to the military that Hitler had to fight a war or ruin Germany. So, suppose in 1937 Hitler orders the military to arm itself quicker, such that Germany arms will reach early 1940 levels by mid-1938. Let us also suppose that this is the straw that breaks the camel's back, with the Nazi economy crashing in mid-1938. What happens?

I'd expect Hitler to start the next war he can to recoup his investment any which way. Could be with italy over Austria, though I'd expect him top go for Czechoslovakia - a Slavic enemy, a chance of getting Mussolini in the boat, and the prospect of getting his hands on plenty of wealth, a first-rate arms industry and a jump-off base to go further East if it works. Of course that would lead to war with France and Britain (they may be prepared to bargain their allies for the promise of peace, but they will not watch them overrun without raising a hand). There was a plan to assassinate Hitler in the event of war in '38, so that might put an end to the matter (a military government makes peace, grants some concessions, Germany survives and is brought back into the fold in a manner similar to Franco Spain or the Greece of the Colonels, to become a valued member of the 'Free World'). However, given how incredibly hard to kill he was OTL it might well not. What kind of war are we looking at? Germany's military is not ready, but neither are the Western allies. I'd say this is much more down to chance and (ironically) decisions taken in Moscow. Stalin'll love it. Imagine the kind of concessions he can squeeze from whoever he sides with.

If, for some reason, Hitler does not start a war, Germany goes into its long, slow decline. Goods become scarce, unemployment rises, industrial output sinks and eventually, the state has to either create expensive makework programmes and introduce rationing, or allow its economy to transition (painfully) to a peacetime output integrated into the world trade system. If Hitler can ride out the disillusionment and anger (not that unlikely, if he can keep his backers in line), the latter course might create something the west would find they 'can do business with'. However, again, given how ready the Wehrmacht and the captains of industry were to entertain thoughts of retiring or removing Hitler in the immediate pre-war years a coup is not that unlikely, especially if the succdessor government could count on, say, 5 million angry unemployed to cheer them on.

If economy goes down the drain it could stenghten communists, something that happened in OTL (downturn in conomy gave some streght to underground communists but war and upturn negated that).

It depends on how bad it is. The worse it is, more troubles for Hitler.