Rockets -or- A Modern Aristotle

Straha

Banned
Onasis, that is.

Post-WWII, a number of war-related resources came on the private market. Onasis made a bundle using the Liberty ships which had been brought out in prodigious quantities during WWII. In many ways they were not the best ships available (Reading a list of LS fates runs heavily towards to 'turned turtle, sank') but they were cheap and numerous.

Post-Cold War, a number of assets came onto the private market. For example, submarine technology which had been used in intelligence gathering became available to corporations about then. One exception is rocket technology. For various reasons the Powers That Be are unenthusiastic about letting high-end rocket technology fall into private hands.

What if there had been a regime in the US or xUSSR which had decided for good reasons or bad to privatize the advanced rocket technology of the day? Thinking about it, although the xSoviets needed the cash badly, the US had enough influence over them to prevent them from taking advantage of the market in a big way. The change would have to be in the US.

So POD (Possibly more than one) 1992:

George 'Call me Chuck' Bush spews all over the crowd during a debate. Clinton reverts to his old form and gives a tedious two hour speech which convinces people that to elect him would be to chose death by boring lecture. Ross Perot keeps his mouth shut, stays in the running and it doesn't become apparent to the general population that he is a mad little dwarf until after he takes office.

Now, there was a vocal Perot supporter who has a serious interest in space. No, not Johny Hart (athough putting Hart in charge of Education would be a giggle). I am speaking of course of Jerry Pournelle, who led RAH's _Take Back Your Government_ with a triumphant claim that Ross Perot was going to be the next POTUS. Now the impossible has happened and JEP has actually been correct. In the giddy aftermath of the election, before Perot closes the trade borders and starts the Great Depression of the 1990s, JEP is put in charge of promoting space travel.

By this point, JEP had soured on NASA and the culture there. He knows that only private industry can develop space and so he decides to help it along. This leads to the Great Rocket Sale of '94, when the surplus ICBMs (which can put small payloads into orbit, although that is not what they are designed for) of the US and especially the xUSSR are sold off through a joint enterprise. The US gets a little cash, Russia gets a lot, and the US can argue that by encouraging the Russians to sell off old weapons systems for commercial use it has helped the cause of world peace.

Sadly, and nobody saw this coming, the US military is dicovered to have unloaded mainly older and less rockets. In fact, selling off the rockets then gives them the excuse to ask for newer and better ones.

So, say that worldwide about 2000 former ICBMs come on the market. There are some restrictions on sales: You don't get the war-heads for one and you have to sign a piece of paper saying you will only use them for peaceful purposes. Although not designed to reach orbit, they can put payloads of up to a few hundred kg into orbit and the sale prices were very reasonable. The GRS is over by '96, when Perot fails to be re-elected but now there are 2000 rockets out there in various private hands.

Because the rockets, paid for with public money, are being dumped on the market, JEP actually manages to depress the demand for new rockets, since the prices eing set (at least by the Russians) have nothing to do with the cost to make the rockets.

We'll assume that the number of missiles which fail into the hands of someone who is interested in them for their White House Lawn Payload Delivering Capability is no more than a few dozen. Any thoughts as to who might want to buy up a whackload of cheap solid rocket boosters?


We might see Iridium go up a little faster...
 
Top