WI the foreign diplomats, soldiers and civilians sheltering in the legation quarter of Peking during the siege by overwhelming nos. of Boxers, had actually been overrun and massacred during those 2 mths in early 1900, before the international relief force OTL fought its way thru to rescue the trapped Westerners ? Would this massacre of Westerners, including women and children, by these 'Asiatic hordes' have provoked outrage among the European and American relief contingents to the same extent that the Indian Mutiny massacres had in 1857, and resulted in similar largescale retaliatory indiscriminate massacres and summary executions committed against Chinese civilians by outraged Western soldiers and marines ? How much more negatively would Western-Chinese political, economic, and racial relations have been affected in subsequent yrs had the Boxers overrun the foreign legation and massacred the inhabitants ?
Boxer Rebellion POD
- Thread starter Melvin Loh
- Start date
The Boxers would of doomed China. China would be partitioned between the major powers (Russia, Japan, England, France, Germany, and the US). China would be forever under colonial occupation.
Probably not forever, but for a long time anyway.
A partition based on existing sphere's of influence would go something like this,
Russia'd get Sinkiang, Mongolia and (probably) Manchuria
Japan could annex their sphere of influence in Funkien, and persuade the powers to allow the annexation of Korea.
France would pick off Southern China
Britain would certainly get Tibet, and has an existing predominance in teh Yangtse valley to use as a basis for negotiation.
Germany carries off Shangtung
they'd also have had to find the USA something, and Germany'd want more than just Shangtung. The North of China would be available, and there'd be some reluctance to let the british annex ALL of their vast sphere in South/Central China, so something could be made available there as well.
A partition based on existing sphere's of influence would go something like this,
Russia'd get Sinkiang, Mongolia and (probably) Manchuria
Japan could annex their sphere of influence in Funkien, and persuade the powers to allow the annexation of Korea.
France would pick off Southern China
Britain would certainly get Tibet, and has an existing predominance in teh Yangtse valley to use as a basis for negotiation.
Germany carries off Shangtung
they'd also have had to find the USA something, and Germany'd want more than just Shangtung. The North of China would be available, and there'd be some reluctance to let the british annex ALL of their vast sphere in South/Central China, so something could be made available there as well.
Prior to fighting their way in the Europeans thought the Quarter had been massacred; there had been some confused reports that the Quarter had fallen a few weeks earlier.
The punitive campaigns that followed would be more nasty (how that could be possible, Lord only knows) and I suspect a more formal partition. It probably changes Chinese history a lot, and possibly even for the better - no Warlord Era, the war with Japan probably totally butterflied away, and the Europeans will go home eventually.
The punitive campaigns that followed would be more nasty (how that could be possible, Lord only knows) and I suspect a more formal partition. It probably changes Chinese history a lot, and possibly even for the better - no Warlord Era, the war with Japan probably totally butterflied away, and the Europeans will go home eventually.
Fearless Leader
Donor
I'd wager that you'd see sort of a defacto partition of China, as the Great powers probably don't have the means or the desire to firmly clamp down on every region of China. The Qing monarchy probably stays in place, mostly as a figurehead to legitimize the partition into spheres of influence. However the great powers (-Japan due to proximity) will probably have to settle for defacto control over outlying regions. This probably persists up until the first world war which could have a Chinese front...
It's also likely that the various provinces of China would grow more autonomous, since foreign partition would make them even more cut off from the government in Peking, which would be weakened to the point of impotence by the great power alliance.
Also, as somebody mentioned before, the foreign occupiers would likely be unwilling or unable to administer the entire country, so they'd likely farm out that responsability to local officials or whatever nearby strongman seems most willing to cooperate.
Also, as somebody mentioned before, the foreign occupiers would likely be unwilling or unable to administer the entire country, so they'd likely farm out that responsability to local officials or whatever nearby strongman seems most willing to cooperate.
Not like the Imperial Army was in any shape to reassert it's monopoly* on military force.
*I use that term very loosely.
*I use that term very loosely.
Grey Wolf
Donor
A relatively unexpected outcome was when the Empress, seeing the approach of the relief army, turned against the rebels and as a reward for this was allowed to keep her throne by the Europeans/Japanese/Americans
If she had been associated with a massacre, she couldn't have performed this volte-face, and the international force would have overthrown her - potentially a good thing, but more likely to lead to rampant civil war
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
If she had been associated with a massacre, she couldn't have performed this volte-face, and the international force would have overthrown her - potentially a good thing, but more likely to lead to rampant civil war
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
The Chinese would be punished, thousands upon thousands of innocent Chinese would be murdered in the witch hunt for Boxers and the nation would be raped by the European powers and Japan. Like OTL the US would be thrown some trinkets and then Brtitian would turn pat America on the head like a small child thank them for their help and then nudge them out of any other negotiantions like OTL. So to be honest the US might get one costal city, two at most. Other than that like OTL the Americans would be pushed out of the circle of friends as they divided China among themselves, leaving the Americans as per OTL jaded and angry.
While I would perhaps agree with this we may also see a growth in nationalism under any prolonged period of European occupation. The great powers are never going to be able to keep anything more than Beijing and the coastal cities under occupation for any period of time, the nation is simple too big for them to have total control over. I can also see the nation falling into warlordism for a time as well,without the east coast and with the government reduced to little more than a puppet for the Great Powers Manchuria and the like are going to be ripe for breakaway movements.
The likes of Sun Yat-set and the Revive China Society are going to come to the forefront of Chinese politics far earlier than in OTL, the Europeans and others are never going to be able to crack down on Chinese nationalism indefinitely. The Manchus/Qing are going to be doomed as a result, we may not see an early abolition of the monarchy but the Imperial system is going to be terminally damaged, just as it was in OTL.
Grey Wolf
Donor
There are viable Imperial Princes around, both as possible figureheads to replace the Empress, or as leaders of factions in a civil war
Moreover, a civil war won't just happen with everyone sitting around watching - some nations are going to get much deeper involved, backing a claimant and hoping for rewards in turn
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
Moreover, a civil war won't just happen with everyone sitting around watching - some nations are going to get much deeper involved, backing a claimant and hoping for rewards in turn
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
Yes the Imerpial system is dead, very dead, and I agree I think there would be agressive anti-occupier movements that will come to the fore front of Chinese politics. Though I wonder the US is going to get shafted even more so in this situation than in OTL so an angry America might see providing say "assistance" to help the Chinese "fight for their freedom" as something useful for them. Because the US tried time and time again to get a peice of the Chinese market but time and time again the other powers muscled the US out of the market. So the US might see supporting and independent China as a way to take a bigger peice of the market pie.
China was already awash in surplus weapons prior to the Boxer rebellion, ITTL the various powers are going to pour every last ounce of surplus to arm their various factions. I wonder who would support what I would assume each power would have its own puppet with a claim to the throne while the US after being shafted by the other powers would back some populist faction just to get in edge wise on the potnetial Chinese economy.