ACW-July 1864-the Crater- Federal victory

In July 1864, the federal troops originally selected to spearhead the Union attack during the siege of Petersburg were the black regts of Burnside's 4th Div (IIRC), who'd been specially trained to storm the Confederate positions after the big underground mine had been detonated by the 48th Pennsylvania miners. However, at the last minute, it was decided that using such a black formation in such a critical engagement would have negative political effects by creating the perception of blacks being used as cannon fodder by the North, so a white div, totally untrained in the way the USCT troops had been, were used instead to lead the attack. Thus, as seen in COLD MOUNTAIN, the attacking Union troops, including the hapless black soldiers- many of whom were massacred out of hand or shot by white Northern troops to curry favour with the Rebs- found themselves trapped inside the Crater like fish in a barrel, since they'd attacked directly into the depression instead of around it as initially planned.

WI there hadn't been such a last-minute change made to the Union attack plans, and the USCT formations were used to lead the attack as the 54th Massachusetts had at Fort Wagner ? What would've been the outcome of the battle, and a successful Union storming of Petersburg ? The effect on shortening the war ?
 
The war would have been materially shortened, as Lee's whole position becomes rapidly untenable. His only supply link to the lower south gets cut, and the pivot of his defensive position is shattered. If he is very smart, and VERY lucky, he can withdraw his army to the west, but this pretty much leads to the same result as occurred after Five Forks...surrender and defeat.

The CSA would be in better shape than they were in springtime of 1865, so it might take a bit of time, but it is extremely unlikely that the Confederacy would survive much past the early autumn...
 
Would the fall of Richmond some time in the summer or fall of 1864 have been the same as the fall of the Confederacy?

If that were so Congress meeting in December 1864 (but elected in 1862) would have looked at reconstruction more than in OTL
 
The attack, if successful, would have cost the CSA Richmond AND most of Lee's army. The war would have been ended sooner, unless such an extreme defeat weakened Lee's position in the South when he argued for accepting the loss in 1865.

Actually the blunder of Burnside went far beyond simply changing units. When I have a bit of time I might post it, if anyone wants me to.
 
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