I have a proposition I would like reviewed by the “experts” here. I do not profess to be an expert on these matters myself.
This scenario proposes one thing instead of Nicholas II a weak ruler, a superczar comes to the Russian throne in 1894. to get an idea of this man’s qualities imagine the good qualities of every Russian ruler from 1613 to the present rolled into one man. By good I do not mean morally good I mean any quality that couild be construed as a positive in a nationalistic way.
His age upon seizing the throne is 26 but that does not matter as you will see.
As tsarevitch he was engaged in russia’s destiny and took an interest in the navy. Since 1891 mostly under his control the Russian navy has been improvingin all facets – more modern, better trained, more ships etc. the tsarevitch reasons that Russia’s army can survive for now on sheer number but the other aspects of the empire’s might must be improved.
Then he becomes tsar and Russia is overturned. The tsar’s first step is simple: efficiency. Russia’s backwards and agrarian culture must be set forward into the industrial ag e and fast. Railways are a first step and these are improved. Secondly emphasis is placed on factories. More factories does two things, one it makes Russia a more industrial modern nation. Two it increases the numbers of the proletariat. The chance of revolution, ever on the tsar’s mind is increased with the new Russia that is developing. Therefore extremely strict security measures are induced. Because of measures like these Lenin etc are either jailed or shot. If a known Russian Marxist exists outside russia’s frontier the tsar makes a point to have them liquidated. These people were enemies of all Europe so it would not be a big deal for an okhrana assassin to work outside Russia.
The tsar’s second action is related tohis precious navy, still in the beginning of its rehaul. He is bitter about the berlin congress of 1884-1885 and DEMANDS not one but two colonies in Africa. Actually he only demands one and he conquers Liberia to the dismay of Britain but says that it is only fair. He then wants another colony on the other side of Africa, he says that Russia is unfairly put out of the continent. He argues that Russia also got screwed in the previous congress of berlin as well. He manages to convince either Britain and italy or Britain and germany to give land of their colonies on the easter cost to Russia. It is a small colony but the tsar intends it only as a port for his growing navy to work with. He still means to hold on to these colonies so he garrisons them well and s ends a large number of troops to occupy and defend them. Perhaps some islands in the Indian and pacific also fall under the tsar’s control.
Thirdly he opens all military positions of power to all people regardless of birth and because of his military knowledge is able to quickly refine Russian techniques and training of war.
Now we come to the key date of this scenario 1904. you will of course recognize this date as the start of the Japanese war. Russia by this time is 10 years into the tsar’s reign, a nice round number. Let’s see what the empire looks like: well there are of course the African colonies squeezed from Europe. The army by this time has undergone as generation turnover that is, the troops are better trained than ever, although not really better equipped. The navy on the other hand has undergone drastic changes. It is among the best led, best trained, and best equipped navies in the world. The tsar has a plan to revamp the Russian imperial navy by using huge high tech battleships surrounded by fast packs of destroyers. The new navy is scheduled to make its full debut in late 1905-1906, when the Romanov-class battleships will reach completion. Thse are as you have guessed the Russian equivalent of the dreadnought. However the plan was hatched in 1902 and the first of the great warships should be christened by mid-late 1904. opposition to the tsar is at a minimum. Russia is clearly on the way up but just how far has yet to be revealed to Europe.
this alternative history everything begins as it had, the tsar does not back down to the Japanese and on feb. 6 the Japanese launch a surprise attack at port author. It is repelled but here is the thing, although the trans-siberian railroad is still not quite completed (otherwise japan would not have attacked) the Baltic sea fleet is readied and dispatched immediately. Now this is one of the finest fleets in the world and especially because of russia’s new ports in Africa and elsewhere there is no problem for it to reach the other side of the world. It crushes togo’s fleet and very soon after the ts railrod is complete. Soldiers are shipped to the region by the carload and not long after japan sues for peace as they are being overrun and can no longer finance the war. They are a crushed nation and the tsar knows this. He runs them off the continent and then demands japan hand over Formosa for a peace settlement. This leaves Russia with korea and Formosa as part of the empire and they are fully in control of Manchuria.
It is now about 1905. things have been set back a bit due to the war but with the new resources the tsar has turned his eyes to the army and to two squabbling northern nations Sweden and Norway, which are still one and the same at this point. It is high time the army receives the same treatment as the navy and Russia by now, with the new economy and funds pouring in from france and the distant asian lands, is ready to revamp the army. the efficiency part has long been done and the army was reduced some in size with the idea that better officers and soldiers would not leave Russia wanting. Now it is time to adequately equip them and so the tsar sets about on another “five year plan” for the Russian army, to have the greatest army in the world by 1910, bar none.
However the recent events to the north distract him. He has long hatched a plan for Russia to invade Bulgaria, Romania, and the ottoman empire to the south and Sweden to the north so that the Russian frontier would stretch fully across Europe and the Russian tentacles would extend over the continent. He realizes that with Norway seceding half of divide and conquer is already done. This will set back russia’s plans some but to have such an excellent position will be worth it. He decides the best way to come out will be to also set his southern war in action at the same time. He forms a secret treaty with Serbia. Serbia will invade Bulgaria from the east while Russia swoops through Romania and downwards from the north. These small countries pose a problem. So does one other thing the frontier. How will Russia insure a defense against germany who has been wary of the Russians for some time now. Well here is how: they conscript huge numbers of poorly trained troops and have them dig a trenches along Moscow, st Petersburg and the frontier. These guys are poorly trained but with the machine gun etc. the defense is in control. If germany invades they willl hold out long enough for the germans to be swallowed by the victorious crack troops and Russia herself.
However there is one more problem the turks. The third Russian army is therefore deployed to smash through the turkey’s back door. Their only real objective is to reach stalemate and then the bankrupt troubled turks will have peace.
Well the war goes fine although Europe is VERY alarmed. Within a year the northern army has seized Sweden/Norway and the southern army has reached the outskirts of Constantinople. Now peace is arranged, the ottoman empire is reduced to little more than present day turkey. The serbs and Russia control the Balkans and Russia gives some of the territory to Greece (roughly modern day Greece). Russia occupies a strip of land reaching the aegean I am not sure if they have Bucharest and sofia or not – would they have those cities or the serbs.
Well as you can guess Europe is in an uproar. The tsar says he will hold a conference with the statesman of Europe but this time on his term on his land, in the winter palace in st. Petersburg.
Here is what transpires: the tsar gives Britain the land they conquered in the western ottoman empire. This secures Britain, formerly angry with Russia as a semi-ally. France of course was an ally but that had since degraded into ambivalence. Russia secures france by perhaps offering them access to a port and some spoils from their new conquests. This is done to isolate germany who the tsar realizes is the main enemy to peace and the new status quo. A French-british alliance against Russia would be dangerous because of the army+navy complications but germany and Austria are greatly feared by both. The tsar reasons that is brit/france is left with a choice between Russia and germany as master of Europe they will choose Russia.
The other thing the tsar does is create a treaty. This treaty states that Russia can not take any more territory in Europe…ever. Any territory taken even for defensive purposes must be relinquished to europoe to divide up in congress as they see fit.
Secondly Russia cannot enter into any alliances, except those of a purely defensive nature. That is they cannot enter a war unless it is to defend an ally who is directly attacked.
Thirdly the tsar reasons with the statesman. He says that the great European countries are as prosperous as ever. Russia’s conquests have not changed that. They are merely the result of Russia finally taking an active step in European politics “the sleeping bear has awakened”. Europe has 2 options: war and the destruction of the status quo and uncertain consequences it will bring, or to bask in the prosperity that they currently, yes even now, sit in.
Fourthly the tsar ENCOURAGES an all-europe alliance against Russia should they pre-emptively attack any European nation.
Because of all this the statesman vote to let Russia keep their lands.
========================================================
It is January 1907. the tsar takes a long well-deserved cruise on his yacht the standard, appropriately the largest in the world. He cruises and visits all russia’s new territory and claims; the aegean as well as the norweigen sea. He thikns to himself, Russia is developing in all aspects, industrial and militarily. It is more prosperous than ever before. The Russian people are in a patriotic fervor as they realize the greatness of their nation. There is zero chance of revolution and he has retained his autocratic powers. Who would’ve thought 13 years ago that the great white tsar would be master of Europe in such short time.
=========================================================
Well I am sorry this was so long I did not expect it. What do you think.
Is any one step completely implausible
Would germany have invaded
Would they have won if they did
Comments suggestions questions please.
notes
i know i use 2 spellings of tsar i like the ts one better but sometimes i feel it is necessary to use the cz
i typed this in word so that is why some words are capitalized and some not
This scenario proposes one thing instead of Nicholas II a weak ruler, a superczar comes to the Russian throne in 1894. to get an idea of this man’s qualities imagine the good qualities of every Russian ruler from 1613 to the present rolled into one man. By good I do not mean morally good I mean any quality that couild be construed as a positive in a nationalistic way.
His age upon seizing the throne is 26 but that does not matter as you will see.
As tsarevitch he was engaged in russia’s destiny and took an interest in the navy. Since 1891 mostly under his control the Russian navy has been improvingin all facets – more modern, better trained, more ships etc. the tsarevitch reasons that Russia’s army can survive for now on sheer number but the other aspects of the empire’s might must be improved.
Then he becomes tsar and Russia is overturned. The tsar’s first step is simple: efficiency. Russia’s backwards and agrarian culture must be set forward into the industrial ag e and fast. Railways are a first step and these are improved. Secondly emphasis is placed on factories. More factories does two things, one it makes Russia a more industrial modern nation. Two it increases the numbers of the proletariat. The chance of revolution, ever on the tsar’s mind is increased with the new Russia that is developing. Therefore extremely strict security measures are induced. Because of measures like these Lenin etc are either jailed or shot. If a known Russian Marxist exists outside russia’s frontier the tsar makes a point to have them liquidated. These people were enemies of all Europe so it would not be a big deal for an okhrana assassin to work outside Russia.
The tsar’s second action is related tohis precious navy, still in the beginning of its rehaul. He is bitter about the berlin congress of 1884-1885 and DEMANDS not one but two colonies in Africa. Actually he only demands one and he conquers Liberia to the dismay of Britain but says that it is only fair. He then wants another colony on the other side of Africa, he says that Russia is unfairly put out of the continent. He argues that Russia also got screwed in the previous congress of berlin as well. He manages to convince either Britain and italy or Britain and germany to give land of their colonies on the easter cost to Russia. It is a small colony but the tsar intends it only as a port for his growing navy to work with. He still means to hold on to these colonies so he garrisons them well and s ends a large number of troops to occupy and defend them. Perhaps some islands in the Indian and pacific also fall under the tsar’s control.
Thirdly he opens all military positions of power to all people regardless of birth and because of his military knowledge is able to quickly refine Russian techniques and training of war.
Now we come to the key date of this scenario 1904. you will of course recognize this date as the start of the Japanese war. Russia by this time is 10 years into the tsar’s reign, a nice round number. Let’s see what the empire looks like: well there are of course the African colonies squeezed from Europe. The army by this time has undergone as generation turnover that is, the troops are better trained than ever, although not really better equipped. The navy on the other hand has undergone drastic changes. It is among the best led, best trained, and best equipped navies in the world. The tsar has a plan to revamp the Russian imperial navy by using huge high tech battleships surrounded by fast packs of destroyers. The new navy is scheduled to make its full debut in late 1905-1906, when the Romanov-class battleships will reach completion. Thse are as you have guessed the Russian equivalent of the dreadnought. However the plan was hatched in 1902 and the first of the great warships should be christened by mid-late 1904. opposition to the tsar is at a minimum. Russia is clearly on the way up but just how far has yet to be revealed to Europe.
this alternative history everything begins as it had, the tsar does not back down to the Japanese and on feb. 6 the Japanese launch a surprise attack at port author. It is repelled but here is the thing, although the trans-siberian railroad is still not quite completed (otherwise japan would not have attacked) the Baltic sea fleet is readied and dispatched immediately. Now this is one of the finest fleets in the world and especially because of russia’s new ports in Africa and elsewhere there is no problem for it to reach the other side of the world. It crushes togo’s fleet and very soon after the ts railrod is complete. Soldiers are shipped to the region by the carload and not long after japan sues for peace as they are being overrun and can no longer finance the war. They are a crushed nation and the tsar knows this. He runs them off the continent and then demands japan hand over Formosa for a peace settlement. This leaves Russia with korea and Formosa as part of the empire and they are fully in control of Manchuria.
It is now about 1905. things have been set back a bit due to the war but with the new resources the tsar has turned his eyes to the army and to two squabbling northern nations Sweden and Norway, which are still one and the same at this point. It is high time the army receives the same treatment as the navy and Russia by now, with the new economy and funds pouring in from france and the distant asian lands, is ready to revamp the army. the efficiency part has long been done and the army was reduced some in size with the idea that better officers and soldiers would not leave Russia wanting. Now it is time to adequately equip them and so the tsar sets about on another “five year plan” for the Russian army, to have the greatest army in the world by 1910, bar none.
However the recent events to the north distract him. He has long hatched a plan for Russia to invade Bulgaria, Romania, and the ottoman empire to the south and Sweden to the north so that the Russian frontier would stretch fully across Europe and the Russian tentacles would extend over the continent. He realizes that with Norway seceding half of divide and conquer is already done. This will set back russia’s plans some but to have such an excellent position will be worth it. He decides the best way to come out will be to also set his southern war in action at the same time. He forms a secret treaty with Serbia. Serbia will invade Bulgaria from the east while Russia swoops through Romania and downwards from the north. These small countries pose a problem. So does one other thing the frontier. How will Russia insure a defense against germany who has been wary of the Russians for some time now. Well here is how: they conscript huge numbers of poorly trained troops and have them dig a trenches along Moscow, st Petersburg and the frontier. These guys are poorly trained but with the machine gun etc. the defense is in control. If germany invades they willl hold out long enough for the germans to be swallowed by the victorious crack troops and Russia herself.
However there is one more problem the turks. The third Russian army is therefore deployed to smash through the turkey’s back door. Their only real objective is to reach stalemate and then the bankrupt troubled turks will have peace.
Well the war goes fine although Europe is VERY alarmed. Within a year the northern army has seized Sweden/Norway and the southern army has reached the outskirts of Constantinople. Now peace is arranged, the ottoman empire is reduced to little more than present day turkey. The serbs and Russia control the Balkans and Russia gives some of the territory to Greece (roughly modern day Greece). Russia occupies a strip of land reaching the aegean I am not sure if they have Bucharest and sofia or not – would they have those cities or the serbs.
Well as you can guess Europe is in an uproar. The tsar says he will hold a conference with the statesman of Europe but this time on his term on his land, in the winter palace in st. Petersburg.
Here is what transpires: the tsar gives Britain the land they conquered in the western ottoman empire. This secures Britain, formerly angry with Russia as a semi-ally. France of course was an ally but that had since degraded into ambivalence. Russia secures france by perhaps offering them access to a port and some spoils from their new conquests. This is done to isolate germany who the tsar realizes is the main enemy to peace and the new status quo. A French-british alliance against Russia would be dangerous because of the army+navy complications but germany and Austria are greatly feared by both. The tsar reasons that is brit/france is left with a choice between Russia and germany as master of Europe they will choose Russia.
The other thing the tsar does is create a treaty. This treaty states that Russia can not take any more territory in Europe…ever. Any territory taken even for defensive purposes must be relinquished to europoe to divide up in congress as they see fit.
Secondly Russia cannot enter into any alliances, except those of a purely defensive nature. That is they cannot enter a war unless it is to defend an ally who is directly attacked.
Thirdly the tsar reasons with the statesman. He says that the great European countries are as prosperous as ever. Russia’s conquests have not changed that. They are merely the result of Russia finally taking an active step in European politics “the sleeping bear has awakened”. Europe has 2 options: war and the destruction of the status quo and uncertain consequences it will bring, or to bask in the prosperity that they currently, yes even now, sit in.
Fourthly the tsar ENCOURAGES an all-europe alliance against Russia should they pre-emptively attack any European nation.
Because of all this the statesman vote to let Russia keep their lands.
========================================================
It is January 1907. the tsar takes a long well-deserved cruise on his yacht the standard, appropriately the largest in the world. He cruises and visits all russia’s new territory and claims; the aegean as well as the norweigen sea. He thikns to himself, Russia is developing in all aspects, industrial and militarily. It is more prosperous than ever before. The Russian people are in a patriotic fervor as they realize the greatness of their nation. There is zero chance of revolution and he has retained his autocratic powers. Who would’ve thought 13 years ago that the great white tsar would be master of Europe in such short time.
=========================================================
Well I am sorry this was so long I did not expect it. What do you think.
Is any one step completely implausible
Would germany have invaded
Would they have won if they did
Comments suggestions questions please.
notes
i know i use 2 spellings of tsar i like the ts one better but sometimes i feel it is necessary to use the cz
i typed this in word so that is why some words are capitalized and some not
