WI: No Republican Revolution in 1994

From: Dale (Shadow6865@aol.com)
Subject: WI: No Republican Revolution in 1994


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Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if
Date: 2004-02-06 18:24:00 PST


In OTL, the 1994 midterm elections were dubbed "The Republican
Revolution" because the GOP managed gain control of Congress with
significant majorities in both houses.
Two PODs to consider:

1. The GOP doesn't gain a majority.

2. The GOP only gains control the House of Representatives but the
DEMs keep the Senate.

How would legislation and history be different for the rest of
Clinton's 6 years? Will he still make his famous "The Era of Big
Government is Over" Will Rush and Ann Coulter become national
celeberties? Would there be such a thing as FOX News? Welfare Reform?
The Defense of Marriage Act?


add-on - how does the 1996 election pan out? Who is the Republican nominee? Does Perot run ? Does Clinton win? Without Perot the election may have been as close as 2000 was.-- MEJ

Rush was popular before '94

Newt deconstructed as Speaker. If the Democrats retain control of the House but with a threadbare margin, then their own internal subdivisions would make it difficult for them to pass legislation of any significance. As minority leader the Salamander would still flame but Clinton would not make a fool of him to same extent. Clinton does not recover as much as OTL and Dole narrowly defeats him in 1996 gaining a majority in both Houses of Congress. Speaker Gingrich is less likely to self-destruct with a Republican President. It would be a conservative administration but Dole would bet not as fiercely ideological as the current crew.

Elizabeth Dole would be a very prominent First Lady--though not quite the Goddess Incarnate (who is). Gephardt would've been Speaker for a while. I think he became obsessed with the career progression idea of being Speaker before running for President. With that under his belt I think he would be Dole's opponent in 2000.

I wonder if Clinton could have been reelected and held Congress had Hilary proposed a simpler and more radical Health Care reform and had openly taken on the Insurance industry and the HMOS

I think the best way to prevent the '94 revolution is to have Bush get re elected in '92. The President's party almost always loses seats in the midterm and I don't think 1993 and 1994 in a second Bush/Quayle term would be much different than 93-94 with Clinton was, outside of health care reform and maybe Somalia and Rwanda.

In a Clinton wins scenario, the '94 revolution could be prevented, or at least the blow could be softened by having Clinton do welfare reform before doing healthcare reform, have Somalia not be such a disaster, or by possibly delaying the tax increases until after the midterms. This scenario could also lead to Dick Gephardt being Speaker of the House if Tom Foley still loses his re election ITTL. This happening however could also put Clinton in a weaker position for '96 as he won't have a hostile rabid congress lead by Gingrich to run against and tie Bob Dole to.