Franco Killed: A Pro-Soviet Spain

What would it have take for the Republicans to have won the Spanish Civil War? With Franco dead or captured, who would have ruled Spain? How much influence would the Soviets have had on Spain? With what effect on Hitler's & Churchill's mindsets? Would a pro-Soviet Spain have been pro-German during the 2 year Hitler-Stalin pact, enough to let Germans troops through to Gibraltar? And when the pact broke up?

Franco did just barely survive a nasty stomach wound (almost a redundancy) during his time in the conflict with the Moroccans.

And assuming Spain remained pro-Soviet like Yugoslavia after the war, how would that effect NATO, & the British desire to leave Cyprus & Palestine? And what alternative destination in the Mediterranean would benefit from the Communist Balearics (10 million tourists per year) being less developed as in OTL?

Or can we posit that Hitler invades Soviet Spain to get at Gibralter and manages to strangle England?

Or that England finds itself with an odd alliance with Soviet Spain?

Or that Gibralter manages to somehow resist and the Anglo/American occupation of Spain in 1945 leaves the USSR demanding compensation elsewhere?

So many ideas, so little sanity...

Nonny said:

What would it have take for the Republicans to have won the Spanish Civil War?

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The communists restrain themselves from their main hobby: Purging other left-wing groups, like anarchists. (ASB)

One or the other competent generals, which means fighting officers from the army of Africa, sides with the government. Maybe Queipo de Llano

=> Competent reaction in the first days will lead to the downfall of the putsch, especially if Hitler doesn´t send JU 52 to transport units from Africa to Spain.

So the putschists have a army in Africa, no transport available and basically no options.
Problem: We don´t have a real civil war, just another failed pronunciamento.

During the war, a better command structure, better logistics and a attitude of letting the reality shape the propaganda and not the other way aound. (propably also ASB, given the state of mind real commies are in )

Primo de Rivera

Had Franco been killed, wouldn't another fascist/Phalangist like Primo de Rivera have taken over the Nationalist cause ?

Melvin Loh said:

Had Franco been killed, wouldn't another fascist/Phalangist like Primo de Rivera have taken over the Nationalist cause ?

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Depends on your POD: If the POD is after the rising of July 1936, Primo de Rivera (falangist leader, son of the former dictator) is in the red´s hands and will be shot.

The falange´s dilemma was, in fact, that the "old hands" had suffered massive casualties during the rising (barcelona, madrid), the leaders were dead/capture/out of action
and a massive inlux of new recruits watered the ideological side.

When we have a civil war, one of the generals takes over. Mola died in a crash, i think in 1937 or 1938, the commander in Barcelona, originally supposed to take command, was captured when the rising there failed, gen. sanjurjo, the "Lion of the Rif", died also in a plane crash.

You might have the Royalists in the Carlist movement play a more leading and signicant role. I'm not quite sure who their leader was, but the Duke of Aosta was the heir after Amadeo/Amadeus I, so the Italians might even intervene more forcefully!

Besides that, if the pro-Soviet side gained an upper hand, I could very well see support drain from the Republican cause, as it did in OTL, but in this case it would propably shift to the Nationalist instead. France and Britain, and the odd right wing dictator, would be damn to Hell and back quite a few times before they allowed a communist Spain!!

And on a more conspirational note, if Franco dies early on, a few of the generals mentioned, Emilio Mola fx, might have lived. It's often said that Franco was behind their "accidents"...

Regards and all!

- Bluenote.

Without Franco, one part of the problem will be that somebody will have to define what the nationalist cause exactly is.

We have the orthodox caholics fighting against separation of church and state,
the leaderless pseudo-faschist falange, with it´s economically leftist tendencies,
land-owners,
we have the carlist pro-monarchists
we have upper- monarchists devoted to a return of Alfonso,
the Castilians, who try to stay the powerbase in Spain.

I have to look up how Franco named his party after the victory, but it was something very long, very complicated and not really giving the program away.

regards
Steffen

Steffen said:

Without Franco, one part of the problem will be that somebody will have to define what the nationalist cause exactly is.

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Heh, yes, the Nationalists were pretty much only united, and defined, come to think about it, by their resistance to the Republicans (or Communists of one sort or another as many Nationalists saw them). With a more radical opposition, the Nationalists would rally, but might fall apart after the war!

I did a faire bit of reading on the SCW while writing parts of Italia Eterna TL, and I'm not certain that Franco was essential to the victory. It was Mola who actually started the rebellion with his proclamation of revolt in Navarre on 19th July, 1936. Franco joined in late September. Before that btw, sometime back '32 general Sanjuro tried to mount a coup - it was unsuccessfull however.

Best regards and all!

- Mr.Bluenote.

Mola´s handling of campaign in the Northern Zone wasn´t exactly spirited. For a civil war, Franco´s careful approach seems to me being quite the right thing. And he never came up with stupid promises like "Drinking coffee in Madrid in 3 days", like "the director" did.


I also did some reading, as spain will play a role in a timeline I´m working on. a christian-conservative party taking over in Germany at the end of the 20s, like in austria, and the implications for european politics coming out.

Steffen said:

Mola´s handling of campaign in the Northern Zone wasn´t exactly spirited. For a civil war, Franco´s careful approach seems to me being quite the right thing.

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No, that's true enough, Steffen! My point was however, that Franco, im my eyes, might not be essential for the uprising/revolution/rebellion, since his entry on the stage was, perhaps, rather accidental, and somewhat late. He might not even have been elected by the, what, 9 generals to lead the coup!
Time seemed to be on the Nationalists side - with the rising radicalism and rifts in the Republican camp is was just a matter of time, I think - as I said nobody outside Moscow wanted a Communist Spain!
And Madrid might (and might not - the joy of AH ) have been taken early on if not for the little detour to, eh, what was the name... ah, yes, Alcazar. The raising of the siege of Alcazar did much to bolster Franco's reputation among the Nationalists, but the diversion gave the Republicans time to prepare Madrid's defences...

Anyway, your TL-idea sound interesting, Steffen! Will you be posting it anytime soon?

Best regards!

- Bluenote.

"So the putschists have a army in Africa, no transport available and basically no options.
Problem: We don´t have a real civil war, just another failed pronunciamento."

Well, they sort of DO have an option. Franco was all but worshipped by the Arab troops under his command (he did various insanely-brave things during the Rif War and they thought he was "blessed" somehow). Perhaps the Nationalists seize control of Spain's African possessions and proclaim some sort of "true Spain" and insist that someday they'll return in triumph to mainland Spain (just as some Nationalists on Taiwan think they have a chance in heck of overthrowing the Communist regime).

I came up with that idea somewhere on the old board and it got incorporated into one of the "Big TLs" we had.

If WWII comes around, the Nationalists could emerge from North Africa to fight a war of vengeance (this assumes Republican Spain would be anti-Hitler and Hitler would see Franco and Co. as useful proxies).

Of course, with all of mainland Spain under their control, the Republicans could simply invade North Africa and "restore order"; however, if the Nationalists appeal to the Arab masses against the "dictatorship in Madrid," they might be able to start some kind of anti-colonial revolt (sort of like Louis XVI openly siding with the 3rd Estate against the nobles and the church). The Republicans were rather racist (I saw one of their posters...it portrays Franco as a puppet of Nazis, fascists, rich Jews, and, referring to his Arab armies, black Africans), so things could get VERY ugly.

Perhaps without Franco the different groups that formed the Alzamiento would began to quarrell with themselves.

BTW, when did Franco die? I've been unable to find the date. It would help to clarify the issue, methinks.

Franco died in 1975. If his death had been a year earlier, coinciding with the 1974 coup in Portugal, could it have ruffled Spain?

Is there any year after 1960 when an earler Franco death might have resulted in a major departure in Spain's history from OTL?

After the Civil War, about 100,000 more Spaniards died in Franco's camps or were executed. When was the last political execution in Spain?

I know that Franco did die in 1975 (a bit late for my liking). I was talking about when he died in this OTL.

I think that the last executions took place in March, 2, 1974, when Salvador Puig Antic (in Barcelona) and Georg Michael Welze (in Tarragona) were executed the same day.

Found this link on Spanish executions
http://www.richard.clark32.btinternet.co.uk/garrotte.html

The last executions in Spain being in 1975
http://www.geocities.com/pd3a2/garottel.html

When were the last executions for Civil War reasons? 1955?

Spain and WW2

I suppose the question really is the extent to which Republican Spain (had it survived) would have sought to ally with Britain and France against a common Fascist/Nazi threat. One might argue that Spain, under greater pressure from Fascist elements internally than were either Britain or France, might have pushed for a more assertive line at Munich.

When war breaks out in September 1939, I can see a Republican Spain joining Britain and France and possibly a still-Fascist Portugal siding with Germany and bringing Iberia directly into the conflict. I could also imagine a Republican and more Marxist-oriented Spain remaining neutral until Barbarossa and then joining the war forcing the Germans to expend valuable resources in an invasion of Spain in 1942 (not wanting the country to become an allied base).

I suppose Spain could also have remained neutral and undisturbed throughout but that looks less likely if a Republican Government were in charge. One thing I am more certain, a Republican Spain would be much more a part of European affairs post-1945 - earlier membership of the EU and NATO.

A regime in Spain that resulted in a German invasion prior to late 1941 might well have cost the Allies the war. The fall of Spain, followed by the loss of Gibralter and collapse of the British position in the Med would have been an absolute catastrophe for the world. Let's not forget that the divisions in Spain, and the inevitable horrors and atrocities under a Stalinist regime, would have left little difficulty for Hitler to rebuild Spain as an ally, probably to the point that the German garrison might be smaller than the Spanish contingent on the Eastern Front.

So, with the British collapsing, the Mediterranean fleet destroyed or fleeing, and Rommel pushing into Iraq and Saudi Arabia, we can predict Turkey and other neutrals to join the winning side when Barbarossa is underway.

At best the Allies win when the US starts nuking Germany in late 1945.

An important point: Beyond his popularity with the Arab troops, France was extremely shrewd financially, from his ability to gain 'donations' from anyone doing business with Spain/hoping to continue to do so, to deliberately running up a debt with Mussolini and Hitler, thereby giving them a vested interest in Franco surviving to pay off said debts. The Loyalists just shipped the national gold supply to Stalin, who ended the war claiming he was still owed money! No Franco, maybe no fiscally solvent movement?

the nationalist cause was very good in propaganda to the upper classes of Great Britain and the US.
For example, the CEO of Texas Oil personally redirected some tankers en route to spain with oil paid by the government to nationalist-held ports,

also the Royal Navy was very helpful to Franco as they didn´t like the massacre of the spanish navy´s officer corps.