Austria/Sweden/PLC vs. Prussia/Russia/Saxony

Can a coalition of Austria/Sweden/PLC take on and win against Prussia/Saxony & Russia during the war of Bavarian Succession. Say Joseph II managed to arranged an alliance with the PLC and Sweden. Can those 3 powers take one Prussia and Russia and win?
Sweden war aims: regain parts of pomerania and weaken Russia's Northern system
Austria: Gain all of Bavaria (assume that Joseph has a son with Maria Josepha so he's claiming it all for his son) +Silesia weaken the Prusso-Russian alliance
PLC: Remove Prusso-Russian influence/interference to allow reform. Say to sweeten the deal, Austria will return parts (not all) of her 1st partition contigent on regaining all of Silesia.

Also could the Ottomans be convinced to attack Russia at this time. Say Austria pressures France to use her influence at the Porte to attack Russia.

Realistically does the coalition stand a chance? Thank you.
 
No, Sweden at the time was no match for Russia, and the PLC would be run over within months. Between Austria and Prussia if the Austrians are able to position themselves well like they did OTL, they will be able to hold until the Russians arrive. When they do the Austrians will be forced to retreat, or get flanked. Soon enough the Austrians will start to suffer defeats and before you know it Vienna will fall. Honestly it will be a short war of a few years with Frederick and Catherine triumphing in the end.

See I was thinking Sweden would be more defensive in the war vis-a-vis Russia with two considerable forces, one in Pomerania to force Frederick to split his armies giving Austria a numerical advantage on the southern front. The other in Finland to threaten St. Petersburg but not actually take it. PLC military is weak at this point but if they were able to cause an insurrection in Prussia and Russia's partition these would serve as distractors. Generally I'm thinking the war as a whole be unprofitable for Russia and with the Porte making moves to declare war she decides to peace out status quo, losing the right to interfere in Sweden at least and recognizing some polish reforms (get rid of that veto thing at least). This'll leave room for the 3 to focus on Prussia. PLC won't gain any land from Prussia (this would've been promise to Russia to remove her from the war). Feasible?
 
I'm still willing to give this idea the benefit of the doubt Benevolence.

Question on Poland- would it be able to enforce its reforms like the abolition of the veto internally and maintain itself in good order or is civil strife likely that Prussia and Russia can exploit again in the fairly near future?
 
The Prussian/Russian/Saxon alliance would likely be the victors here. I can't really see a scenario where Austria wins a victory decisive enough to gain both Bavaria and Silesia, France would involve itself before such a balance altering event could occur. I think you need a POD from earlier in the century if you want those results, or lower the war aims to something more reasonable (IE no Silesia, Austria swaps Belgium for Bavaria instead of gaining it outright).

See I was thinking Sweden would be more defensive in the war vis-a-vis Russia with two considerable forces, one in Pomerania to force Frederick to split his armies giving Austria a numerical advantage on the southern front. The other in Finland to threaten St. Petersburg but not actually take it. PLC military is weak at this point but if they were able to cause an insurrection in Prussia and Russia's partition these would serve as distractors. Generally I'm thinking the war as a whole be unprofitable for Russia and with the Porte making moves to declare war she decides to peace out status quo, losing the right to interfere in Sweden at least and recognizing some polish reforms (get rid of that veto thing at least). This'll leave room for the 3 to focus on Prussia. PLC won't gain any land from Prussia (this would've been promise to Russia to remove her from the war). Feasible?
You need to do more than make the war unprofitable for Russia to accept the humiliating and balance shattering move of Austria gaining Bavaria and Silesia. That's not going to happen without a decisive victory. And even then it just means that war will come again soon because much of Europe will not accept it. And you're probably greatly overestimating Sweden's offensive capabilities in this time frame. I don't think they'd even be willing to fight both Prussia and Russia at the same time, not unless they were jumping in late when it looked like Austria was winning.
 
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I'm still willing to give this idea the benefit of the doubt Benevolence.

Question on Poland- would it be able to enforce its reforms like the abolition of the veto internally and maintain itself in good order or is civil strife likely that Prussia and Russia can exploit again in the fairly near future?

If anything I'm more inclined to say it won't be able to enforce the reforms outright as there'll always be hangers on who want to go back to the good ol days, rather her main war aim would be to remove any guarantees of interference that Russian and Prussia have on PLC's internal politics as Sweden later did in OTL with Russia in the Treaty of Varala. While outside powers will always attempt to intervene, they'd have much less in the way of cause to do it and should the coalition win, it'd at the very least give PLC enough time to enforce the reforms. Granted this is hoping things go well.
 
The Prussian/Russian/Saxon alliance would likely be the victors here. I can't really see a scenario where Austria wins a victory decisive enough to gain both Bavaria and Silesia, France would involve itself before such a balance altering event could occur. I think you need a POD from earlier in the century if you want those results, or lower the war aims to something more reasonable (IE no Silesia, Austria swaps Belgium for Bavaria instead of gaining it outright).


You need to do more than make the war unprofitable for Russia to accept the humiliating and balance shattering move of Austria gaining Bavaria and Silesia. That's not going to happen without a decisive victory. And even then it just means that war will come again soon because much of Europe will not accept it. And you're probably greatly overestimating Sweden's offensive capabilities in this time frame. I don't think they'd even be willing to fight both Prussia and Russia at the same time, not unless they were jumping in late when it looked like Austria was winning.

The Belgian/Bavaria swap is still in play for this ATL, I doubt Joseph could claim it for his heir outright (recently enlightened to this by a member of the forum) as it'd be through the female line and a junior one at that. Him having a son with Josepha would strengthen the claim, not by much I think but strengthen it non the less.
I do have some doubts about Austria/Sweden/PLC winning which was why I thought it best to knock Russia out of the war by making it untenable, I would think suspicious moves by the Ottomans or declaration of war on Russia by them + insurrections within the Russian Partition would help hasten this. To my knowledge the Russo-Prussian alliance at the time was defensive and it was Prussia that declared war, while its in Russia's interest to assist Prussia, I doubt it'd be in their interest to fight on for especially if it looks like the Ottomans are going to attack. This would free up Swedish and Polish troops to focus on Prussia/Saxony.
As per Sweden's military ability/performance, I'd say you've got me there. The 3 of them focusing on Prussia/Saxony would help split their forces. With a decent amount of luck they might just win + diplomacy (remove Saxony). Prussia would still hold East Pomerania and her Polish partition so it wouldn't be too much of a loss of power for her. Prussia's gains in the 1st partition were quite viable manpower and economy wise. Attempting to take more I think, would harden the positions of the opposing camps and Russia may still comeback to intervene (ah Russia, forever the wild card :D )
 
The thing is Catherine was very determined about this issue and wouldn't allow such a change in balance, neither would France.

Russia could divert a single army to Finland and prevent Swedish action against them. And if the Poles are rising up that won't make them back down, but step forward and crush the PLC and would probably lead to a complete disappearance of Poland, as Prussia and Russia both get most of it, while Austria is given some as a concession. This would be in Russia's interests because it makes the Poles an even bigger Prussian-Austrian-Russian issue like OTL, making in all the powers interests to keep Poland subjugated. It also prevents giving too much to Prussia or taking too much fro Russia itself and angering the other powers (Britain, France, ...). And of course if Austria is offered concessions it makes for a shorter war with Austria meaning more economically viable and politically viable as Russia is able to divert forces to the south to defeat the Ottomans. And the Ottomans on the border won't take Russia out of the war, Catherine would love a war against the Ottomans, so that she could implement the Greek Plan or just take some more land for Russia. All she needs to do is maintain an army near or in Finland to prevent any Swedish attack on Russia, send an army or two to crush the PLC, and then divert the majority of her armies to defeat the Ottomans. Meanwhile the Prussians and Austrians might stalemate as per OTL, or the Prussians might outmaneuver the Austrians and beat them before the Russians fresh off defeating the PLC flank the Austrians and force out of position so that the Russians and Prussians and defeat them. Honestly the Austrian alliance is no position to win.

I feared as much, though I have my reservations. As a side, any idea as to how many troops Catherine could field at the time? PLC's troops at the time I think we're quite adept at defensive warfare and since they aren't fighting alone or against themselves they might put up a better defence. I would think France would be supportive (albeit limited, French court really no likey Austria even though allies ) of the coalition primarily as a means of weakening GBR's continental ally Prussia, their relationship with Russia at this point is more ambivalence than anything. GBR would be against the coalition though, but I would think she'd be more focused with the American Revolution at the time (France's direct intervention started in June 1778, Bavarian Succession started July that same year). GBR could pressure Denmark-Norway to intervene though.

Thanks for the replies and making this an interesting discussion everyone
 
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Russia had lots well over 100,000 with the ability to muster up to 200,000 if they really needed the men.

The Ottomans can match that, problem would be troop quality and leadership. But with those numbers Sweden & Poland would have to focus on their eastern borders, probably the only diversion for Prussia would be an insurrection in her partition and that would probably not be strong enough of one.
 
True on all accounts. I mean the Russians and singlehandedly destroy the entire Ottoman Empire with two small armies under Rumyantsev and Suvorov.

How do you think the fact that it's a multi front war would affect Russia's military performance, Russia has a lot of troops but she'd be fighting a 3 front war at this point (something she's never done before, at most she always fought on 2 fronts during which she would more drag out affairs on the secondary front avoiding major engagements)

Sweden's military is kind of ok (done some research, not much but some) what she lacks in numbers she makes up for in skill, her main problem with the wars preceding this time was poor preparation and funds to carry out the war. Assuming proper preparations were made, because truly Austria/Sweden/PLC really had a lot to gain by knock Prussia down a peg and weakening Russian influence (+ Ottomans) how'd would they fare?

Thanks.
 
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