Not moving against the population is different to outright defection like the French Guards.
You don't seem to understand (maybe you don't read French): their officers said that they were not going to move against the population and their men wanted to JOIN the mob. Basically they wanted the same thing: more justice and a lower bread price.
And who would be the ones to remove his head?If the King ordered a crackdown using the Swiss troops,chances are that there would be a massive purge against insurrectionist elements.
Against which elements? You seem to think that it was an organized movement. It wasn't. There were no "leader". At that time there is no "revolution". You have a mob who wants bread, with people afraid of seeing so many regiments around the city.
The only way I can see where it doesn't work is if it was a half hearted crackdown where only a couple of people were killed.If it was bloody enough,the people will probably fear the king.
That's plainly studid, it didn't work that way at that time in France. Don't forget the logic: the revolution happened BECAUSE the king ordered a crackdown on the 12th and suddenly discovered that his troops were not reliable any more. Look at some reports from Valenciennes and Strasbourg where the local regiments moved WITH the population.
You also have to understand that people were NOT against the king but for MORE justice. Ir's not the same thing.
If there is indeed the chance of an outbreak of a civil war,chances are that the rebels will be poorly organized,with most of the leaders purged by the Swiss troops.
Civil war? Rebels? There are no rebels, the whole population including the army wanted the same thing and expected a lot from les états généraux.
That was against only a few Swiss guards.It was one thousand or so Swiss guards against 20k,with some national guards mixed amongst that 20k.If there's at least ten thousand Swiss guards,the situation would have been drastically different.Actual native French soldiers except for units deemed loyal will also have been deployed away from Paris if such a thing was to be attempted.
Save that it can not happen...
1/ French regiments were not reliable
2/ they were not going to leave the city
3/ the king does not know that they are not reliable (they understood too late)
4/ What do you think if French regiments are ordered to leave the area leaving only mercenaries around the city? People are going to react even faster. Now you just have 10.000 men (not 20k) against the largest city in the country with thousand of well trained elite troops (gardes françaises) for the mob. What can you expect?
5/ Outside Paris troops were not reliable any more.
the mob was only around 20k-30k at most.
Wrong... 40.000 rifles were distributed on the 13th. On the 12th 40 ouf of the 50 toll stations in the city were burned by close to 70k people...
Ten thousand professional,well equipped soldiers with experienced officers are more than capable of handling that.Remember,most of the mob are poorly led,equipped and trained.
In a city fight... Their own city? With a large population agreement? With the whole Maison du Roi taking their side (the Gardes Françaises were just one among many other units). Whishful thinking. Swiss are not stupid, they know that it would end in a bloodbath and that at the end on the wrong side of a pike.
Not to mention,they wouldn't be led by their officers.
Their own officers leaded the fight...
When it comes to situations like this,you either don't try to suppress the revolt and try to win through negotiations or go all the way and do it as brutally as possible.Half-heated attempts at suppression will generally backfire.
Historical evens do not support that. ALL suppressions backfire sooner or later. The worse the suppresion the worse the backfire...