Which Chinese rebellion was closer to success: An Lushan or Taiping Revolution

The An Lushan Rebellion was led by An Lushan and his son against the ruling Tang Dynasty, while the Taiping Revolution was led by a Christian man who thought of himself as the successor to Jesus and tried to take over the Qing Dynasty.

Which rebellion was closer to taking over China?
 
I'd say An Lushan was closer to success.

0) From the start, the Qing and the Tang responses looked quite similar: they were both empires long accustomed to peace, and caught suprised by a rebellion. But their subsequent behaviors varied.

1) An Lushan took both Chang'an and Luoyang, while the Taiping Northern Expedition failed to take Beijing.

2) An Lushan rebellion developed into a long-draw war of attrition, and the Tang won by outlasting its enemy. The Qing was able to device a new military system, and in fact had a military revival when emerging out of the war.

3) In the end, Tang ended the war by giving autonomy to the rebel regions, and this region never became Chinese again until the Ming Dynasty drove out the Mongols. The Qing, on the other hand, could crush the Heavenly Kingdom completely.
 
And Qing had foreign support to destroy Taiping, something Tang didn't.

To get an idea of the loss of authority, here's a map
It's a bit hard to understand, but after some wiki'ing: red flags indicates provinces that were still acting like provinces, black indicates provinces that are essentially fiefs whose only obligation is to not let barbarians take them, otherwise fully autonomous. The filled/empty difference seems to be some hierarchical difference that was only a little nuance by that time.

Red dotted line indicates land ceded to Tibet. Hard to imagine today but Tibetan Empire used to be a super power back in its days.
 
Probably the An Lushan Rebellion, considering that the Tang had to make strenuous political concessions to the provinces (namely giving autonomy to local leaders), something which the Qing also did but to a much lesser degree. The Qing was in a better position against the Taiping militarily, especially if you consider that they had to deal with multiple concurrent rebellions, something the Tang didn't really have.

But then again, if you factor in the rather-ASB possibility that the Taiping could have reached an accommodation with the Westerners, the Taiping Rebellion probably could have gotten a partial victory out of their war with the Qing. The Qing also got lucky when Feng Yunshan was killed by a stray shot early on in the rebellion.
 

Sabot Cat

Banned
Probably the An Lushan Rebellion, considering that the Tang had to make strenuous political concessions to the provinces (namely giving autonomy to local leaders), something which the Qing also did but to a much lesser degree.

But then again, if you factor in the rather-ASB possibility that the Taiping could have reached an accommodation with the Westerners, the Taiping Rebellion probably could have gotten a partial victory out of their war with the Qing.

I think the Taiping Rebellion could have succeeded with better leadership, perhaps under Shi Dakai, if its founders are killed in their skirmishes with the bandits and the Qing Dynasty.
 
I think the Taiping Rebellion could have succeeded with better leadership, perhaps under Shi Dakai, if its founders are killed in their skirmishes with the bandits and the Qing Dynasty.

Also if they didn't largely piss off the Brits by asking stupid questions about religion. The British and French were at first quite eager to help the Taipings, with the whole Christian kingdom in China but the leaders really took a piss at them as far as I understood.

Otherwise you'd have a rebellion backed by the two major players of the day against a weak state. You can imagine troops, officers, artillery... Instead of sex crazed cultist leaders. Probably would have helped :p
 
Also if they didn't largely piss off the Brits by asking stupid questions about religion. The British and French were at first quite eager to help the Taipings, with the whole Christian kingdom in China but the leaders really took a piss at them as far as I understood.

Otherwise you'd have a rebellion backed by the two major players of the day against a weak state. You can imagine troops, officers, artillery... Instead of sex crazed cultist leaders. Probably would have helped :p

Yes there were theological differences, but the Taiping was generally very, very patient with the foreigners, with almost all Taiping-Western conflicts ending with Taiping giving in.

In the same time period, most of the xenophobic pogroms occurred on Qing territory, and the Qing government was often deemed utterly unreasonable in foreign eyes.

I'm not sure about the French, but it seems the real reason behind Taiping's lack of support from the British was opium. Taiping's strict anti-narcotic policy means a loss of revenue for the British had they taken over China.

Didn't the Tang get the support of the Uighurs and Turks?

Yes, mercenaries paid by allowing them to loot Chang'an.
 
Yes there were theological differences, but the Taiping was generally very, very patient with the foreigners, with almost all Taiping-Western conflicts ending with Taiping giving in.

In the same time period, most of the xenophobic pogroms occurred on Qing territory, and the Qing government was often deemed utterly unreasonable in foreign eyes.

I'm not sure about the French, but it seems the real reason behind Taiping's lack of support from the British was opium. Taiping's strict anti-narcotic policy means a loss of revenue for the British had they taken over China.
Also, IIRC a Qing China was considered to be easier to exploit than a Taiping China.
 
I'm not sure about the French, but it seems the real reason behind Taiping's lack of support from the British was opium. Taiping's strict anti-narcotic policy means a loss of revenue for the British had they taken over China.

Oh right, forgot about this. I need to read more about this war anyway. I did however read the English were not happy about Taiping's view and felt like they were being mocked.

I don't have the source here, will try to find it if anybody's interested
 

Maur

Banned
The An Lushan Rebellion was led by An Lushan and his son against the ruling Tang Dynasty, while the Taiping Revolution was led by a Christian man who thought of himself as the successor to Jesus and tried to take over the Qing Dynasty.

Which rebellion was closer to taking over China?
Er, An Lushan without doubt. He basically trashed the Tang, and only got defeated by outside forces. Basically he won, then he lost.
 
Er, An Lushan without doubt. He basically trashed the Tang, and only got defeated by outside forces. Basically he won, then he lost.

Actually he fell victim to a patricide and his son wasn't as capable as he thought he was.
 
I'll say the Taiping Rebellion had more chances of success, because the An Lushan rebellion only got as far as it did due to some very bad moves by the Tang government.

Unlike the Taiping Rebellion, the An Lushan rebellion was not rooted in popular dislike of the ruling dynasty. When An Lushan first revolted, he put on the pretense of saving the Tang, by getting rid of Yang Guozhong. Quite a few officials and cities went over to An Lushan, but in many cases they resisted him when it was opportunistic. Before the Tang botched the defense of Chang'an and were forced to flee the capital, officials north of the Yellow River near An Lushan's home base would defect to and from An Lushan's side. Their loyalty to the Tang did waver, but it was never the case that they stuck idealistically to him or against Tang.

While the idea between Taiping Rebellion may been some Utopian Taiping Heavenly Kingdom, An Lushan's rebellion never stood for anything besides a pure power grab by one man. In contrast, the Taiping Rebellion had genuine anti-Qing sentiment.

Also, the Tang in the 750s were much stronger than the Qing in the 1850s. The Tang had their problems with corruption, but I would argue that they were less than the Qing at the time of the Taiping. Also, the Tang was still decently popular (see above), and the idea of the dynasty's legitimacy lasted. Note that even though there were regional governors who remained independent after the rebellion, they never declared their own dynasties. There was maybe one part of Tang China that had genuine antipathy towards the Tang government, but even that area didn't formally break away from the Tang even when they could.

If the Taiping had been more successful, they had maybe a small chance of taking over China Proper. In contrast, I would say An Lushan never had a chance in winning over all of Tang China.
 
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