As OTL goes, Grand Duke Alexios Apokaukos was a major leader of the Constantinople Regency faction during the messy and in many ways fatal Byzantine Civil War of 1341-1347. He died in July 1345 when a prison inspection went horribly wrong, and his death was soon followed by various defections and internal conflicts in his camp, a small civil-war-within-a-civil-war in the Regency stronghold of Thessaloniki and all around disasters. It can be said that the Grand Duke's death was a serious blow to his faction and considerably contributed to John Kantakouzen's eventual victory in the civil war.
So what if he decides to bring along some bodyguards and nothing special happens on July 11? How much longer will the Regency faction hold on? Do they actually have a chance of winning the war?
John Kantakouzenos was gradually losing his two major allies - the Serbian King was increasingly friendly with the Constantinople Regency and increasingly hostile to Kantakouzenos, and the Emir of Aydin was busy fighting in his own home. Will the presence and activities of Apokaukos be able to deny Kantakouzenos an alliance with the Ottomans and put him back on the defensive?
And if the Regency wins, in what ways will that affect the history of the Empire and south-eastern Europe? Presumably there will be no Ottoman hegemony, but what about Constantinople's Sarukhan allies? Without the Ottoman incursion and civil wars of the '50s, will the Byzantine Empire be able to solidify their control over Thrace and do something about the rest of their coveted territories?
So what if he decides to bring along some bodyguards and nothing special happens on July 11? How much longer will the Regency faction hold on? Do they actually have a chance of winning the war?
John Kantakouzenos was gradually losing his two major allies - the Serbian King was increasingly friendly with the Constantinople Regency and increasingly hostile to Kantakouzenos, and the Emir of Aydin was busy fighting in his own home. Will the presence and activities of Apokaukos be able to deny Kantakouzenos an alliance with the Ottomans and put him back on the defensive?
And if the Regency wins, in what ways will that affect the history of the Empire and south-eastern Europe? Presumably there will be no Ottoman hegemony, but what about Constantinople's Sarukhan allies? Without the Ottoman incursion and civil wars of the '50s, will the Byzantine Empire be able to solidify their control over Thrace and do something about the rest of their coveted territories?