With a PoD of 1830 could the United States of America conquer all of Mexico and South America if they really wanted to? In OTL the USA wasn't interested in having an empire, but what if the United States decided it wanted to form one in South America? How big could an American Empire grow?
Could the USA conquer South America and Mexico?
- Thread starter ComradeWukong
- Start date
Caesar Biden
Banned
It depends on what you mean by conquer. I guess the U.S could theoretically conquer the Americas, but it would never be able to hold it for very long, and it certainly would have no interest in doing so.
CthulhuFhtagn
Banned
Not before 1900. By the mid-20th century, the US is probably capable of doing it. But there is absolutely no reason to do so, and the American people would never support it.
What makes it different from England controlling India and large parts of Africa?
Caesar Biden
Banned
Just a similar level of technology, less time, outside rivals such as Britain, and a host of other things.
Well....going the whole way(as in, all of Mexico, all of Central America, and all of South America, even including Brazil) actually is theoretically possible, but would require a significant amount of handwaving, pretty much regardless of the POD....(btw, I did my own brief mini-TL, in map + description form, a little while back, with a POD in ~1776, which had just about everything in the Americas outside of northern Canada, Brazil, and a few other places; I forget if there was a formal title to it, but the *U.S. superstate was called the "Trans-American Federation". It was a fun exercise, TBH, but not all that plausible. Here's the link if you'd like to check it out: http://www.counter-factual.net/upload/attachment.php?attachmentid=4812&stc=1&d=1386390797).
Northern Mexico + Central America isn't nearly as hard, and might just require some more things going wrong for Mexico & right for the U.S.; the rest of Mexico on top of that could also be done, but you'd need either a final war, or Mexico imploding and the U.S. deciding to just pick up the pieces(even if only to prevent chaos on their borders).
also, a history of independence as internationally recognized entities, the same reason Ethiopia avoided colonization iirc
Even Decades of Darkness had it not conquer all of the Americas, but if they had DoD like changes, then sure, why not?
The problem with conquering territory is that other people are living on it.
Once people had a concept of nationhood it became difficult to conquer and absorb them. Even if the US could take the territory it would be faced with rebellions on a massive scale. Arguably it would have to change so much that it would no longer be recognisable.
Once people had a concept of nationhood it became difficult to conquer and absorb them. Even if the US could take the territory it would be faced with rebellions on a massive scale. Arguably it would have to change so much that it would no longer be recognisable.
It could be done, but you'd have to change the mindset of the US population dramatically. For this to be done the US would have to view the other nations in the Americas as unequal. I mean they would really have to buy into the The American Race idea that was going around the early 20th century.
The problem is that neighbours to this nation tend to get nervous. The moment it became clear the the USA wanted to conquer both continents they would all unite against them. The only reason it didn't happen in WWII was because anyone who was neutral wanted to see how it would play out. In this case there is no neutral ground, they are all under threat.
A United South America could beat the USA in this TL. Because in this TL the USA doesn't have nearly as large a population as OTL. Who would want to move to a nation that treats you as a second class citizen?
If OTL USA in the 20th century was brainwashed to want to conquer the whole of South America and Central America, then they could do it. There wasn't really anyone who could have stood up to that sort of power.
The problem is that neighbours to this nation tend to get nervous. The moment it became clear the the USA wanted to conquer both continents they would all unite against them. The only reason it didn't happen in WWII was because anyone who was neutral wanted to see how it would play out. In this case there is no neutral ground, they are all under threat.
A United South America could beat the USA in this TL. Because in this TL the USA doesn't have nearly as large a population as OTL. Who would want to move to a nation that treats you as a second class citizen?
If OTL USA in the 20th century was brainwashed to want to conquer the whole of South America and Central America, then they could do it. There wasn't really anyone who could have stood up to that sort of power.
1. It took about 100 years for the UK to conquer India, and that perfectly coincided with the period when the gap between Western technology and locla technology was at it's greatest.
2. Britain was the pre-eminent power in the world during that time, with absolute naval supremacy for most of it, meaning there weren't any other great powers to stop them. This would not be the case for South America, where several European powers (not least Britain itself) would oppose the USA.
3. South American nations had far more political consciousness in 1830 than India had in 1750 (or even 1900), having already defined ideas of political rights and revolution, and would surely rise up against invaders, having already done it against Spain.
Not likely, with a USA similar to OTL. Mexico, yes, but not all of Latin America
Prior to about 1860, the US was no more powerful militarily than Chile, and the US Navy was arguably weaker than several South American navies. Also, logistically, such a massive conquest would be almost impossible.
After the US Civil War until roughly 1890, the US was reconstructing itself and had no desire to conquer new territory.
After 1890, public sentiment (as well as the eventual diplomatic and possible military opposition of Britain and France) would make such a grandiose plan of conquest politically impractical.
In the 1840's, the US probably could have conquered and absorbed Mexico, but taking on an entire other continent is almost ASB
Prior to about 1860, the US was no more powerful militarily than Chile, and the US Navy was arguably weaker than several South American navies. Also, logistically, such a massive conquest would be almost impossible.
After the US Civil War until roughly 1890, the US was reconstructing itself and had no desire to conquer new territory.
After 1890, public sentiment (as well as the eventual diplomatic and possible military opposition of Britain and France) would make such a grandiose plan of conquest politically impractical.
In the 1840's, the US probably could have conquered and absorbed Mexico, but taking on an entire other continent is almost ASB
Part of the problem, of course, is that Latin America is full of people very different from the white Anglo protestant USA. I see two possibilities. Either the US goes all Decade of Darkness and subjugates most of the locals as unfree non-citizens, or it goes massively multicultural and treats brown, black and Indio the same as whites. Which seems unlikely.
Your best bet is to have an existential threat in the Old World (like otls Nazis or Soviets, but who manage to conquer the whole continent). In that case the US might well find the will to 1) industrialize and help educate, and then 2) bring into its political structure, the rest of the Americas. That would, of course, mostly not be 'conquering', but more likely accepting applications to join.
Second best bet is for the US to annex all of Mexico after a different Mexican-American war. The US formalizes voting tests, e.g. requiring literacy and/or a certain income to be able to vote, probably as well as an oath of allegiance to the Constitution, say. After a generation of nasty politics, the whiter elite of Mexico is co-opted into the US political system, and several 'brown' politicians (initially mediterranean dark, but later mestizo) and businessmen become prominent in US political and financial circles.
The large mass of nonCitizen darker, poorer Hispanics makes Southern slavery seem less exceptional, and, even if slavery, per se, doesnt massively extend into Mexico, nonCitizen subjects are far too numerous to be allowed the vote, and the threat to the Southron way of life eases. Eventually, slaves move from 'property' to peons/indentured labour.
Meanwhile, the increasing 'browner' cast to the American elite means the 'one drop' rule, firstly becomes unenforceable, and later is removed.
By the 1880s, things have stabilized, and border disputes, etc, in Central America end with each of those states being conquered piecemeal, and treated the same way as Mexico.
In 1892, Ecuador, in a border dispute with Colombia, applies voluntarily for admission to the Union as a State. Colombia refuses to accept this, and is soon conquered by the US. So, for a decade or so, Ecuador is the only State in South America, Colombia is just a territory.
Border disputes with Peru and Venezuela lead to those being conquered, while Chile leaps in on thePeru war, and gains 'favored status'.
Next, Paraguay seeks entrance due to threats from HER neighbors.
Argentina and Brazil go to war, and Uruguay petitions of admittance to the Union to avoid being hit in the crossfire. The US imposes a peace, reducing both Argentina and Brazil to protectorates.
Chile, seeing which way the wind is blowing, and wanting not to slide/be forced into protectorate status, petitions to become a State.
WWI equivalent happens, and the US occupies the 3 Guyanas, 'to keep order'. The European nations arent in any kind of position after the war to object, especially as the US presents them with a bill for 'the cost of peacekeeping and administration' incurred.
WWII equivalent happens, and Argentina and Brazil continue their rivalry by aiding the opposite sides. Since the US has limited their militaries, this largely consists providing safe harbor for European warships and raiding each other.
the US intervenes, kicks out all Europeans, and forcibly annexes the last two surviving South American countries. Then mops up the Caribbean, any bits that remain, just for completeness.
By about 1950 or so, the US owns all of Latin America and has I dont know how many states, but probably over 100. In states like Dakota, all residents of the state are citizens (but non-citizen subjects of other states, while allowed in for migrant labor, face major difficulty achieving resident status). In states like Alabama and the Yucatan, less that half the population holds citizenship. In the newly aquired territories in exBrazil, only about 1% (mostly american collaborators and carpet baggers), but that number is expected to go up 'soon'.
----
Kind of Decades of Darkness lite.
Your best bet is to have an existential threat in the Old World (like otls Nazis or Soviets, but who manage to conquer the whole continent). In that case the US might well find the will to 1) industrialize and help educate, and then 2) bring into its political structure, the rest of the Americas. That would, of course, mostly not be 'conquering', but more likely accepting applications to join.
Second best bet is for the US to annex all of Mexico after a different Mexican-American war. The US formalizes voting tests, e.g. requiring literacy and/or a certain income to be able to vote, probably as well as an oath of allegiance to the Constitution, say. After a generation of nasty politics, the whiter elite of Mexico is co-opted into the US political system, and several 'brown' politicians (initially mediterranean dark, but later mestizo) and businessmen become prominent in US political and financial circles.
The large mass of nonCitizen darker, poorer Hispanics makes Southern slavery seem less exceptional, and, even if slavery, per se, doesnt massively extend into Mexico, nonCitizen subjects are far too numerous to be allowed the vote, and the threat to the Southron way of life eases. Eventually, slaves move from 'property' to peons/indentured labour.
Meanwhile, the increasing 'browner' cast to the American elite means the 'one drop' rule, firstly becomes unenforceable, and later is removed.
By the 1880s, things have stabilized, and border disputes, etc, in Central America end with each of those states being conquered piecemeal, and treated the same way as Mexico.
In 1892, Ecuador, in a border dispute with Colombia, applies voluntarily for admission to the Union as a State. Colombia refuses to accept this, and is soon conquered by the US. So, for a decade or so, Ecuador is the only State in South America, Colombia is just a territory.
Border disputes with Peru and Venezuela lead to those being conquered, while Chile leaps in on thePeru war, and gains 'favored status'.
Next, Paraguay seeks entrance due to threats from HER neighbors.
Argentina and Brazil go to war, and Uruguay petitions of admittance to the Union to avoid being hit in the crossfire. The US imposes a peace, reducing both Argentina and Brazil to protectorates.
Chile, seeing which way the wind is blowing, and wanting not to slide/be forced into protectorate status, petitions to become a State.
WWI equivalent happens, and the US occupies the 3 Guyanas, 'to keep order'. The European nations arent in any kind of position after the war to object, especially as the US presents them with a bill for 'the cost of peacekeeping and administration' incurred.
WWII equivalent happens, and Argentina and Brazil continue their rivalry by aiding the opposite sides. Since the US has limited their militaries, this largely consists providing safe harbor for European warships and raiding each other.
the US intervenes, kicks out all Europeans, and forcibly annexes the last two surviving South American countries. Then mops up the Caribbean, any bits that remain, just for completeness.
By about 1950 or so, the US owns all of Latin America and has I dont know how many states, but probably over 100. In states like Dakota, all residents of the state are citizens (but non-citizen subjects of other states, while allowed in for migrant labor, face major difficulty achieving resident status). In states like Alabama and the Yucatan, less that half the population holds citizenship. In the newly aquired territories in exBrazil, only about 1% (mostly american collaborators and carpet baggers), but that number is expected to go up 'soon'.
----
Kind of Decades of Darkness lite.
I'm currently working on a TL in which a red America in the first half of the 20th century pursues a slightly different version of her Manifest Destiny, aiming to create a true Worker's Paradise on the American continent.
So, yeah... it might just need a different form of government to achieve something like this.
British Republic
Banned
Gaining Mexico is not too hard, but getting South America is much harder. However it is not ASB, to achive this you need to have a PoD dating from the Seven Years War.
Let me explain it, in OTL Britain gained New France, ITTL (thanks to better sucess by Prussia) they also gain Cuba and Florida, which overall adds French and Spainish Speaking Catholics to BNA and a fair number of mixed raced subjects.
Since the underlying issues remain the ARW still happens, the big difference with more Catholics the British are less keen on a generous Quebec Act, insted they basically expand the Irish Penal Laws to North America. This get French Speaking Canadians and Cubans to join the ARW and also means they have a good chance of getting Jamaica and The Bahamas.
Thus this United States is have founding fathers who would be English, French and Spainish Speaking, Protestant and Catholic, White and Mixed Race.
With the French Revolution also likely to happen sooner or later Bolivar and others are going to end up visiting places like Cuba and compare what he gets in Spainish South America and think "I would like some of that"
With Most of Europe at war pretty soon Latin America is destablised (as in OTL) and thanks to the loss of all of BNA (they would also have to sell Ruperts Land and Oregon-Columbia because logistically, the Americans have a major advantage), Britain is going to want a presense in the Americas, so like in OTL they are going to focus on Argentina. Which further detablises Spainish Rule.
With the Spanish Speakers in Cuba wanting to help their counterparts down south, eventually America gets dragged into the Latin American Wars of Independents. Logestically it is not impossible for the Americans from getting involved in the Vicroys of New Spain, New Granada and some parts of Peru at the very least.
Thus the United States now covers from Northern Latin America to the Frozen North.
Then we get to the matter of slavery, ITTL the balance of power is even greater against the slaveholders, so sooner or later they would want out. Thus we have the ACW. However Britain, France and Spain (who have a lot of history with the US) would want to weaken a potental rival.
So this time round they back the CSA, even that though still means the the CSA loses (the logistics are against the Europeans, plus it might trigger a war in Europe). America could likely gain Newfoundland, Guyana and the remaining French Carribean colonies.
Since the CSA and its supports have basically commited treason, Radical Reconstruction gets more political support.
Thus by now (with the Monroe Doctrine) the stage is set for a encounter with with the British and Brazilians (who would most likely ally with the British and whose slavery issues the Americans would now take a dim view on.
I admit it is a very difficult PoD and nearly everything needs go right with the United States (although it did in OTL, what I am done is boost the size from day one), but it is certainly not ASB. However a 1830s PoD is too late for Latin America.
Let me explain it, in OTL Britain gained New France, ITTL (thanks to better sucess by Prussia) they also gain Cuba and Florida, which overall adds French and Spainish Speaking Catholics to BNA and a fair number of mixed raced subjects.
Since the underlying issues remain the ARW still happens, the big difference with more Catholics the British are less keen on a generous Quebec Act, insted they basically expand the Irish Penal Laws to North America. This get French Speaking Canadians and Cubans to join the ARW and also means they have a good chance of getting Jamaica and The Bahamas.
Thus this United States is have founding fathers who would be English, French and Spainish Speaking, Protestant and Catholic, White and Mixed Race.
With the French Revolution also likely to happen sooner or later Bolivar and others are going to end up visiting places like Cuba and compare what he gets in Spainish South America and think "I would like some of that"
With Most of Europe at war pretty soon Latin America is destablised (as in OTL) and thanks to the loss of all of BNA (they would also have to sell Ruperts Land and Oregon-Columbia because logistically, the Americans have a major advantage), Britain is going to want a presense in the Americas, so like in OTL they are going to focus on Argentina. Which further detablises Spainish Rule.
With the Spanish Speakers in Cuba wanting to help their counterparts down south, eventually America gets dragged into the Latin American Wars of Independents. Logestically it is not impossible for the Americans from getting involved in the Vicroys of New Spain, New Granada and some parts of Peru at the very least.
Thus the United States now covers from Northern Latin America to the Frozen North.
Then we get to the matter of slavery, ITTL the balance of power is even greater against the slaveholders, so sooner or later they would want out. Thus we have the ACW. However Britain, France and Spain (who have a lot of history with the US) would want to weaken a potental rival.
So this time round they back the CSA, even that though still means the the CSA loses (the logistics are against the Europeans, plus it might trigger a war in Europe). America could likely gain Newfoundland, Guyana and the remaining French Carribean colonies.
Since the CSA and its supports have basically commited treason, Radical Reconstruction gets more political support.
Thus by now (with the Monroe Doctrine) the stage is set for a encounter with with the British and Brazilians (who would most likely ally with the British and whose slavery issues the Americans would now take a dim view on.
I admit it is a very difficult PoD and nearly everything needs go right with the United States (although it did in OTL, what I am done is boost the size from day one), but it is certainly not ASB. However a 1830s PoD is too late for Latin America.
By 1899, the US can probably conquer all of North America south of Canada. As for South AMerica, it depends but I imagine it becomes a snowballing effect.
The necessary POD would be no Civil War and regional division in the US. The US would need a stronger seccession crisis in the 1820s which makes clear the dominance of authority in Washington over states.
Then, we would likely need much more racism, or much less. SOmething that would either make slavery off the table until the end of the 1800s, or off the table because the slavers were freed in the 1830s or something.
The former POD seems more likely.
If the Mexican-American war lasted longer, perhaps the US would keep a permanent large standing army. BY the 1860s or 1870s, have another war break out with Mexico and Spain. If the US wins the war and it is a hard fought one, they will have a large, modern army. After winning this hard fought war against a respectable European power, the US would probably be much more militaristic and maintain a larger, modern navy. It can all be paid for due to their expanding economy. The US probably will then finish of Spain and any country that stands in their way from building a Canal, such as Columbia.
The necessary POD would be no Civil War and regional division in the US. The US would need a stronger seccession crisis in the 1820s which makes clear the dominance of authority in Washington over states.
Then, we would likely need much more racism, or much less. SOmething that would either make slavery off the table until the end of the 1800s, or off the table because the slavers were freed in the 1830s or something.
The former POD seems more likely.
If the Mexican-American war lasted longer, perhaps the US would keep a permanent large standing army. BY the 1860s or 1870s, have another war break out with Mexico and Spain. If the US wins the war and it is a hard fought one, they will have a large, modern army. After winning this hard fought war against a respectable European power, the US would probably be much more militaristic and maintain a larger, modern navy. It can all be paid for due to their expanding economy. The US probably will then finish of Spain and any country that stands in their way from building a Canal, such as Columbia.