OOC: I hate to be one of 'those' people who throw cold water on every ATL, they are extremely irritating,
but I have a few comments on this if I may..
Every 12th of July, the Kingdom of Ireland commemorated the anniversary of the Battle of the Boyne, now considered as Liberation Day in both Dublin and among its expatriate communities across the world.
Although they are retrospectively viewed in the light of Irish and Scottish nationalism, the Jacobites were not explicitly fighting for Irish or Scots separatism as much as they were fighting for the Stuart lineage, and effectively a Catholic UK. Whilst I'm happy to go along with the ATL you've established I think it should be said that had the Jacobites won the Battle of the Boyne it wouldn't necessarily mean Ireland would automatically become independent, for most Irish people it would simply mean that the monarchy shared their religion, so they may be less hostile to it for a while at least, but it's not out of the question for Ireland to go on to become a patriotic leading member of the United Kingdom. That would be a very interesting turn of events indeed! And not unprecedented, during the Irish confederate wars the Irish catholics pledged allegiance to Charles I. Conversely, whatever happened to the Ulster Scots, (those who rebelled against the crown and fought for a foreign king, ironically called loyalists..) if they were not wiped out completely they would be very suspicious of the British monarchy, if not actively hostile. Perhaps you could have some analog separatist movement from them. Whilst I'm being hideously pedantic, were Ireland to become independent at this stage it is likely you would have much less of an expat (no pun intended) community.
Last Sunday, I bought two books from Sociedad de Trébol (Shamrock Society), the cultural arm of Royal Irish Embassy here in Manila. The books were "The Story behind Boyle" by Owen O'Neill[1] and "Between the Boyle and the French Revolution: British-Irish Relations between 1690 and 1789" by Sean McMillian[2], both available here through Spanish-language editions, translated by the authors themselves (due to the fact that the Irish are fluent in other languages aside from their own, especially English, Spanish and/or French).
Is this the Stuart lineage, or some successors, or a completely separate Irish Royalty?
The second book, meanwhile, narrated the complicated relationship between Great Britain and Ireland from 1690 to the outbreak of the French Revolution in 1789, as the title suggested. This book told everything about the topic: the earliest "cold war" between London and Dublin, the underground trade, the Battle over the control of Isle of Man, population exchanges (Scots-Irish families settling Cumbria, Dumfries and Galloway while loyal Jacobite clans from Scottish Highlands settled eastern Ulster, now renamed Dál Fiatach[3]), mercenary armies, the involvement of both France and Spain in the so-called "Cold War", the claims to each other's thrones. In short, it tells everything in an interesting part of both Irish and British histories.
I can see the Ulster Scots being chased out of Ireland, and perhaps fleeing to mainland Britain (this even happened to some extent after the Free State was formed) but I cannot imagine Jacobite clans moving to Ireland. First of all most of them were strictly protestant, so while they may have had some shared political ambitions, the religious differences at the time were probably too much to overcome, for both sides alike. I suppose it could happen, but at some point there would be a similar ideological split between catholic and protestant as in OTL Ireland. I speak as someone of Highland Scots descent, the protestant churches in the Scottish highlands and islands were remarkable for their religious extremism. And another aspect is that any sort of invaders would be treated with great suspicion if not outright hostility, even the gallowglass, who spoke almost the same language, for the most part fought on their side, and were of the same religion, were regarded as foreign invaders. /OOC
Now, here's my question: What if the Jacobite troops actually lost the Battle of the Boyne? What will its effect on the Irish history? The relationship between London and Dublin? And even the Irish language? I wanna see read opinion, guys.
The Battle of the Boyne was critical to the future of the United Kingdom and Ireland, if the Jacobites lost there's probably no way to recover from it, just as when the Williamite troops lost there was no coming back, any further skirmishes were basically futile as both forces were pretty much drained and there were no reinforcements for either side at that time. I suppose you'd have a British-occupied Ireland, which would mean a substantial drain of resources. So if there's any British Empire at all it would be a vastly smaller one than OTL, they can probably still take Ceylon, Madras and Burma, but not Bengal and the Punjab, at a guess. And of course they wouldn't have the benefit of Irish mercenaries, whose importance cannot be overstated in the forging of the empire.
It's impossible to say what happens in the long term, but there's certainly no civil war, no fascist rule, no tension between london and dublin over perceived support of the axis by the Irish. If Ireland remains as part of the UK then it enjoys the benefits of the UK's economy and technological advances etc, and of course they can enjoy more secularism and multiculturalism from the commonwealth. And the benefits of being anglophone might help them forge better ties with the USA, it would certainly make the USA a more attractive destination for Irish people if they speak the language.