Maria Manuela I of Portugal
A sovereign state free from the Iberian Union
Majestic, isn't she?
As we know, Maria Manuela Avis-Habsburg was the eldest surviving daughter of John III of Portugal and his wife (and first cousin) Catherine of Austria, the youngest daughter to Philip "the Handsome" and Joan of Castile, "the Mad".
Maria Manuela was a quiet and melancholy girl that in her mid teens was sent to Spain in order to marry her double-first-cousin, the soon-to-be Philip II of Spain. Their only son, Don Carlos Lourenço of Asturias, is regarded as one of the most controversial royals of late Renaissance. Born deformed, ugly and mentally incapable, with a fond for torturing animals and humiliating servants, he died aged 23 after being held prisoner by his own father for some time.
Maria Manuela herself died only a few days after giving birth. Her younger sibling, João Manuel, would marry Joan of Spain, who was Maria Manuela's sister-in-law. Their offspring would result in another woe: Sebastian I of Portugal, the infamous prince that died after a suicidal battle against the moors in 1578 (Battle of Alcácer-Quibir). He was much more handsome and athletic than his 10 years older double-first-cousin Carlos, but he enjoyed a health as pitiful as the latter's and was strongly misogynistic, refusing to marry and producing issue.
This eventually led to the 1580 Portuguese Succession Crisis, that made his uncle, Philip II of Spain, also king of Portugal, throwing the country in a 60 year long period of subservience to its Castilian neighbour and dragging the Portuguese Colonial Empire down to a slow but painful decadence.
However, as some people here may know, John III of Portugal had a younger sibling: Duarte (or Edward), the Duke of Guimarães. Duarte had two daughters, Maria (married to the Duke of Parma) and Catherine (married to the duke of Bragança). Eventually, IOTL, Catherine of Guimarães's grandson would be John IV Bragança of Portugal. But Duarte had another son, born posthumously: Duarte II of Guimarães (1541-1576). Contemporary record describes Duarte II as a handsome, cultivated, politically skillful and popular prince. He also seemed to be chaste, since there are no records of mistresses or children born out-of-wedlock. Actually this guy never even married.
This popularity caused very much jealousy on Sebastian, who in turn mistreated his first-cousin-once-removed in every possible way. It is said that Sebastian purposedly didn't invite his cousin to a royal bull-fight in Xabregas, which had upset Duarte to the point of making him withdraw from court.
So, basically:
There would be three crucial POD's here: the first would be Maria Manuela surviving longer enough to maybe producing more heirs or even assuming the throne after her father's death. The second would be her brother João Manuel dying as a child, before marrying, so there would never be a Sebastian. The third would be Duarte II of Guimarães living longer that he lived and marrying.
Maria Manuela was, IOTL, sworn heiress to the throne of Portugal in the absence of surviving brothers (the Iberian kingdoms were much more female-friendly in terms of inheritance). Let's butterfly that John III of Portugal (who was still alive at the time of his grandchildren's births) stipulated in the marriage contract of his daughter that the crowns of Portugal and Castile-Aragon should never reunite, and Maria Manuela should nominate one of her children to the throne of Portugal, renouncing to their rights to the Spanish throne. Let's suppose that she gives birth to another daughter: let's name her Catherine Isabella of Spain, born around 1546. This would surely mess a little bit with the succession again, but there's a very bright light in the end of the tunnel.
With John III dying in 1557 just as he died IOTL, supposing that Maria Manuela lives longer, she would be declared Maria I of Portugal or Maria Manuela I of Portugal. Unhappily in those times, the stupidest excuses were given in order to alienate women from ruling, and this certainly would be the case, since the girl seemed to be a little too delicate and moody to rule (Maria's grandmother was Joan the Mad, don't forget it), and probably her husband Philip would be the "de facto" sovereign of Portugal during the minority of their children.
If the aforementioned Catherine of Spain marries her first-cousin-once-removed Duarte II of Guimarães, who was only 5 years her senior and in all grounds a perfect match, Catherine would be after her mother's death Catherine I of Portugal, being the rightful granddaughter of the previous male king. Her husband and cousin Duarte, by "jure uxoris" and being also a male-line grandson of Manuel I Avis, Duarte II of Portugal. So, after all, if the young couple manages to produce a large and healthy offspring, the Dinasty of Avis would be kept alive and Iberian Union would never take place. Carlos Lourenço, Catherine's elder brother, could also be a little less messed up and could've married Elisabeth of Valois instead of his father, thus stopping for a while the tradition of incestous marriages (and inbreeding) in the Habsburg tree. Their issue would certainly be much healthier and also could even prevent the Habsburg collapse of Charles II of Spain, a century later.
Finally, which would be the short-term and long-term consequences of this solution to the succession crisis? Would Portugal resume being the great and glorious colonial/comercial empire it was before IOTL's Iberian Union? Would the Inquisition in Portuguese domains stop for the sake of peace and respect to natives and jews/moors? Would Maria Manuela and her daughter Catherine manage to be powerful rulers and be sort of Iberian-Catholic versions of Elizabeth I of England in terms of "ass-kicking women in power"?
Any suggestions to stretch it further and better? They will all be appreciated!
Thanks in advance!
Last edited:
