WI-Russia didnt colonize Siberia.

SpamBotSam

Banned
If Russia didnt colonize Siberia, what would happen to that whole area? While some ethnic Russians created and settled in cities there, and the indigenous peoples still live there today, that area is now under Russian control, despite its low population density.

If Russia didnt colonize Siberia centuries ago, would that land be like Antarctica (with exception of having some population), in the fact that different countries would fight over that area that doesnt officailly belong to any nation? I'd say thats a strong possibility.

Would the siberian natives split and divide the land into smaller governments? Highly doubt that, since even to this day, the siberian native population is very small.
 
Chinese would have occupied a great deal of it., especially in the East whre the tribes were notionally Chinese vassals.

Trans-urals was already controlled by Muslim states which would have persisted
 
If Russia didnt colonize Siberia, what would happen to that whole area? While some ethnic Russians created and settled in cities there, and the indigenous peoples still live there today, that area is now under Russian control, despite its low population density.

If Russia didnt colonize Siberia centuries ago, would that land be like Antarctica (with exception of having some population), in the fact that different countries would fight over that area that doesnt officailly belong to any nation? I'd say thats a strong possibility.

Would the siberian natives split and divide the land into smaller governments? Highly doubt that, since even to this day, the siberian native population is very small.

I am afraid the Native Siberians would have been treated like all natives, pushed to the side ready for the powerful nation to take over for example:
Native Americans being put on reservoirs by the US
Aboriginal Australians and British Empire

Chinese would have occupied a great deal of it., especially in the East whre the tribes were notionally Chinese vassals.

Trans-urals was already controlled by Muslim states which would have persisted

Either China, Japan or maybe even a Western European like Sweden using it as their Eastern colony?
 
Didn't remnants of the Golden Horde hang onto these areas until Ivan the Terrible defeated them? So, we would see the Mongols persist longer.

However, if Russia did not expand, who would. Russia would stand in the way. Likely, Russia would be so weak so as to not expand, they themselves would be colonized. So, we are likely looking at Iranian domination likely, as I think they are the only marginal power that can even expand that way. By the 20th century, likely the British would claim Siberia as they would have Alaska at that point.
 

Driftless

Donor
The Japanese take and retain Sakhalin, Kuriles & Kamchatka?


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I think it's hardly unlikely that some sort of Mongol successor state could persist. Most likely, we'd have multiple states, including an expanded China and Japan.
 
Depends what POD, but if we say the POD is post-Mongol conquests, you would likely see a heavily Turkic dominated Siberia. The Siber Khanate could persist through to the present in some form, Japan would likely expand directly north, China would expand up to at least Lake Baikal if not further.

The bigger question for me though, is what happens elsewhere? Assuming the Russians don't take Siberia, they never really form an imperial power (really, you need a divided Russia to avoid Russian conquest of Siberia). As such, I imagine they never conquer Poland-Lithuania (Poland-Lithuania may survive until present in some form or another, or at the least, it never gets conquered by someone else). The Caucasus states remain independent or become part of another empire. The Crimea stays Tartarish. Central Asia? That's a big one, perhaps China conquers all of it (in OTL they moved all the way up to Balkash and Badakhshan and made vassals of several Turkic states such as the Khanate of Kokand - perhaps they could do even more). It's impossible to know what else will happen - without Russia as a big player, who knows, Britain may never rise to power, France could be the dominant European nation, there's no certainty at all.
 

jahenders

Banned
If Russia is too weak take it, then China and Muslim countries would seize some of it. The remainder would be a pale remnant of the Mongols (kind of like a Northern Mongolia).
 
If POD is after 14th century preventing Russia from taking most Siberia is extremely tricky.


Siberia was conquered for control of the fur trade and this trade is extremely profitable (in XVII century more than 10% of Russian budget). Additionally most of Siberia is too cold for a proper agricultural state and to foresty for a nomad one so there is no local power to check expansion. So whoever controls Northeastern European Russia (as it has convenient routs to western Siberia via rivers) is almost destined to take most of Siberia.
 
When the Qing expand in the eighteenth century they would also march north as well as east and south. You would probably have a khanate nominally controlling the area. though it really depends on why the Russians wouldn't colonise Siberia, it was ultimate the continuation of European expansion west which had started in the Medieval Era.
 
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