AHC: Make the Brazilian Empire a superpower

With the POD between 1800 and 1825 and the end of the timespan in 2000, make Brazil more advanced and powerful than the USA (or as much advanced and powerful as possible) without weakening the USA.
In the end of the ATL, Brazil should be the first superpower and the USA be the second one.


The beginning of the history of Brazil is strange and interesting, but the conditions were unfavorable.

In the 19th century, Brazil had a latifundium system in which the aristocracy owns huge lands and the labor were done by slaves.
In 1808, John VI, the king of Portugal, was afraid of Napoleon and fled to Brazil. From 1815 to 1820, Rio de Janeiro was the capital of Portugal. After 1820, John returned to Lisbon and left his son, Peter I, in Brazil. Brazil received the Portuguese debt to become independent. Peter became the first Brazilian emperor.


Some opinions:
The Portuguese people could reject the return of the royal family, which had fled during bad times. Portugal would not transfer the debt to Brazil during the independence.
If Napoleon had won his wars, the royal family would not be able to return to Europe and the name of the descendant country in South America could be... Portugal.

The population can grow later, because it will receive immigrants in mass from many countries, including Germany, Italy, Japan, Syria and Lebanon.

¿Without weakening the USA? That's going to be real tough, for both countries will be competing for European inmigrants. The country with the large amount of qualified inmigrants should win.


Maybe get a stronger Mexico, a more devastating 1812 war, and of course earlier abolition of slavery in Brazil.

Probably not possible without eliminating malaria and yellow fever. Just to start with. Brazil would also need more arable land to support all those people, so it needs eg all of otl's Argentina as well.

I dont think its possible without weakening the US, really.

Maybe keeping Brazil and Portugal united long enough for it just being Greater Brazil.

rush4you said:

¿Without weakening the USA? That's going to be real tough, for both countries will be competing for European inmigrants. The country with the large amount of qualified inmigrants should win.

Maybe get a stronger Mexico, a more devastating 1812 war, and of course earlier abolition of slavery in Brazil.

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Wouldnt a stronger Mexico engulfing a weaker USA be also a hindrance to Brazil?

Would Argentina have better chances of becoming a superpower than Brazil?

Alstein said:

Would Argentina have better chances of becoming a superpower than Brazil?

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Well, Buenos Aires was considered on par with American and European cities in the early 20th century, but chronic political instability hindered Argentina throughout its history. That, and much of its economy at the time was dependent on ranching, which hurt it when food prices dropped.

Argentina is one of those nations that I think could have been a respectable power if it had better governance and if other countries stopped exploiting its economy for a while (e.g. the financial crisis of the late 90s). The 20th century hurt its standing a lot, especially after a coup in the 1930s if you believe the Wikipedia article. The satirical comic Mafalda written in the 1960s and early 1970s often makes jokes about Argentina being underdeveloped and everyone wanting to flee the country, hinting at its poor economic shape at the time.

(Read Mafalda if you know at least intermediate Spanish by the way. )


I like The Penguin History of Latin America for a general resource.

Through Five Republics On Horseback by G. Whitfield Ray has a portrayal of turn of the century Buenos Aires, though the author's prejudices will make you roll your eyes. Take that book with a shaker of salt.

The Gold Diggings of Cape Horn by John R. Spears can be found for free digitally and gives some perspective on the Patagonian gold rush of the 1870s.

EDIT: I study Spanish South America a lot more than I do Brazil, so I probably won't be much help there. The Penguin History of Latin America has a good amount of information on that country though.

Dathi THorfinnsson said:

Probably not possible without eliminating malaria and yellow fever. Just to start with. Brazil would also need more arable land to support all those people, so it needs eg all of otl's Argentina as well.

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Yellow Fever didn't exist in Brazil before 1849 and Malaria was a problem even in Europe, I don't think that those diseases are enough to avoid the development of the country.

I would like to know more about this lack of land, I just never heard of it before entering this forum, but I just like to know more about it. Do you know any books or websites that I can see to learn more about it?

Dathi THorfinnsson said:

I dont think its possible without weakening the US, really.

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true.

Brazil needs to break up the latifunda earlier, avoid the Ragamuffin war (and arguably the Paraguayan war), keep Uruguay, be more open to immigrants from Europe, Asia and Africa, squash its revolts quickly and generally stay stable. But that's probably not enough. That'll likely get the country to great or world power, but not superpower.

Hmmm... Maybe sticking with Portugal for a bit longer and receiving administration of Angola and Mozambique in addition to all the above?

The lack of arable land in brazil is a myth oft perpetuated on this board. While it is true that much of it is locked up in the latifunda system, it it also true that brazil has been an economic powerhouse in several commodities. Brazil's biggest problems mostly stem from the way it was set up by the portuguese. Physically, it only lacks energy resources. Otherwise, only man has held it back from the ability to become a superpower. In that regard, good luck with the massive cultural reform required, especially with this op pod

unprincipled peter said:

The lack of arable land in brazil is a myth oft perpetuated on this board. While it is true that much of it is locked up in the latifunda system, it it also true that brazil has been an economic powerhouse in several commodities. Brazil's biggest problems mostly stem from the way it was set up by the portuguese. Physically, it only lacks energy resources. Otherwise, only man has held it back from the ability to become a superpower. In that regard, good luck with the massive cultural reform required, especially with this op pod

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Hunh!

According to wikihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_use_statistics_by_country
US: 1,669,302
India: 1,535,063
China: 1,504,350
Russia: 1,192,300
Brazil: 661,299
Canada: 474,681
Australia: 471,550
Ukraine: 333,847


So, Brazil is a lot higher on that list than I thought. OTOH, it's only 40% of the US's growing land, and a bit less than that of the USSR's (e.g. Russia+ Ukraine + Kazakhstan (222))

So... It's probably harder to make Brazil a superpower with those figures than the US, USSR/Russian Empire, China or India, but it should be possible.

I retract my objection, and apologize.

unprincipled peter said:

The lack of arable land in brazil is a myth oft perpetuated on this board. While it is true that much of it is locked up in the latifunda system, it it also true that brazil has been an economic powerhouse in several commodities. Brazil's biggest problems mostly stem from the way it was set up by the portuguese. Physically, it only lacks energy resources. Otherwise, only man has held it back from the ability to become a superpower. In that regard, good luck with the massive cultural reform required, especially with this op pod

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The Oil could be rectified if Angola somehow ends up under Brazilian control.

Dathi THorfinnsson said:

Hunh!

According to wikihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_use_statistics_by_country
US: 1,669,302
India: 1,535,063
China: 1,504,350
Russia: 1,192,300
Brazil: 661,299
Canada: 474,681
Australia: 471,550
Ukraine: 333,847


So, Brazil is a lot higher on that list than I thought. OTOH, it's only 40% of the US's growing land, and a bit less than that of the USSR's (e.g. Russia+ Ukraine + Kazakhstan (222))

So... It's probably harder to make Brazil a superpower with those figures than the US, USSR/Russian Empire, China or India, but it should be possible.

I retract my objection, and apologize.

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But these stats are from nowadays. Before the technologies created during the Green Revolution you would have a hard time trying to make the Cerrado (where is the main Brazilian grain producer area nowadays). I doubt that you could have profitable agriculture there in the 19th century.

With optimal administration, how advanced could Brazil have become?


These are my suggestions:

A POD in 1815
After the defeat of Napoleon, a coup occurs in Portugal in 1815 and John VI is unable to return to Portugal. Then, John VI declares the independence of Brazil and becomes the first emperor. The Brazilians continue loyal to John, because he is the legitimate king and the ones that took the power in Portugal are usurpers. In 1816, John dies because of a disease and Peter I becomes the new emperor.

To found a new empire, Peter I starts progressist policies. The first challenge is the abolition of slavery and latifundium, but the aristocracy is the most powerful group in the country. The first step is to attract immigrants and start the industrialization. The Atlantic slave trade was abolished. The early industrialization will avoid the disorganized expansion of the urban centers and the formation of slums in the future.

The agrarian reform will be done by creating laws. It is achieved with the moderator power, which is a power to nullify the separation of the three powers and keep the absolutism. The law forbids the owners of huge lands from purchasing more lands. Consequently, after the death of the owner of a latifundium, the latifundium will be divided equally to the heirs and the most successful sibling will not be able to buy the lands. Therefore, the lands will become cheap and the immigrants will be able to buy them.

Without the debt and the anti-independency conflicts, Brazil has resources to win the Cisplatine War and keep Cisplatine and expand the south borders.

Keeping the country stable, Peter I does not resign and the Ragamuffin War does not happen. Peter I is able to live for more 10 years and be succeeded in 1844.

From 1845 to 1850, a revolution starts a civil war and the result is the abolition of the slavery and the proclamation of the republic. (something similar happened in the OTL USA from 1861 to 1865) The new government structure will be definitive.

Since the freed men will be unemployed, the new government will start making heavy investments in the education.

The indigenous people will be offered education and their lands will be protected. In exchange, they will have to protect the forests against illegal destruction.


The second half of the 19th century
(??)

New challenges:
-Expand the territory. The annexation of Colombia and Bolivia would prevent the development of huge drug-trafficking networks in the future.
-Expand the rail network, but there is so much geologic elevation.
-Get a port to the Pacific Ocean, but the Andes is a wall that will prevent the expansion. The annexation of Colombia is an option, but there is a huge forest in the path.
-The cities in the Amazon forest are good places to build power plants and factories that expel much carbon dioxide, because the forest could filter the polluted air.
-There is an arid area in the Northeast. It can be developed following ideas used for developing in Arizona and Nevada.
-Decrease the occurrence of mosquito-related diseases.

The 20th century
(??)

New timeline, new problems:
-The rivalry with the USA will be born, but wars against the USA will be avoided. An agreement will keep the peace. The USA will control North America and the Caribbean, and Brazil will control South America.
-During any possible "world war" in Europe, Brazil will not participate and will sell goods and offer loans.
-During any possible "cold war", Brazil will develop nuclear weapons and any possible successful communist revolution will not cause an America invasion.

Gonzaga said:

But these stats are from nowadays. Before the technologies created during the Green Revolution you would have a hard time trying to make the Cerrado (where is the main Brazilian grain producer area nowadays). I doubt that you could have profitable agriculture there in the 19th century.

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Well, most of the interior of the southern states was uninhabited until the mid XX century and at least a good part of this region is naturally fertile. I think that until 1910 there was almost no person living west of Ponta Grossa, maybe some in Foz do Iguaçú and a very little population of farmers, but until 1920 the north of the Paraná was still a region with plenty of Kaigang indians.

unprincipled peter said:

Physically, it only lacks energy resources. Otherwise, only man has held it back from the ability to become a superpower.

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This argument could be made for most minor powers in the 19th century.

"Oh, if 'X' was only run -properly- and had capitalized on the 'Y' reserves in 'Z' province -earlier- they could -totally- have become a super-duper power!~"

This board is filled with this stuff.

That said, a Brazil that can manage to pull up a chair at the Great Powers' lunch table (via massive prestige/military wanking, and much much earlier social/political reform) can start gobbling up its neighbors Monroe Doctrine-style (sphere-of-influence or outright conquest---Paraguay, Uruguay, and even Argentina will all likely require the latter) and work toward colonizing Africa (Brazilian Nigeria, anyone?).

The liberal revolution is crushed by a coup in 1822 mantaining the UKPBA as it was before the return of the king, John VI dies and Pedro decides to stay in Brazil in 1826. It will change the capital of the United Kingdom to Rio de Janeiro, will avoid Cisplatine War and the rebelions of the brazilian provinces, it will give to Brazil the control over Portuguese Africa. At the same time the other nations in Latin America will be even more suspicious towards Brazil, maybe Miguel will want to steal the portugueses throne and the other UK (england) can be a little bothered with another naval and colonial power rising in Europe - South America.

Draeger said:

This argument could be made for most minor powers in the 19th century.

"Oh, if 'X' was only run -properly- and had capitalized on the 'Y' reserves in 'Z' province -earlier- they could -totally- have become a super-duper power!~"

This board is filled with this stuff.

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To be fair, mismanagement is a critical reason why states underperform. Fix that and the economy is stronger, the infrastructure is better, the military is better funded, etc, and the states will drastically increase their power and standing.

Peru was a monster during the Guano boom when it was run decently well, Gomez' Venezuela had one of the largest economies in the region and rapidly modernized the state, the Dominican Republic under Trujillo in the 1940s managed to in ten years transform from a backwards agrarian country of barely a million people to the strongest and most industrialized country in the Caribbean and Central America, etc.

Good governance is key to getting a state stronger.

That said, a Brazil that can manage to pull up a chair at the Great Powers' lunch table (via massive prestige/military wanking, and much much earlier social/political reform) can start gobbling up its neighbors Monroe Doctrine-style (sphere-of-influence or outright conquest---Paraguay, Uruguay, and even Argentina will all likely require the latter) and work toward colonizing Africa (Brazilian Nigeria, anyone?).

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Brazilian Nigeria is ASB. Britain has had an interest in that area since the 1830s (they owned Lagos for a very long time). You'd need to remove Britain from that area and there's no way Brazil can do it, unfortunately.

As well, again, Angola people. Its a Portuguese colony, relatively close to Brazil and has extensive oil and mineral reserves. If Brazil snags it, the oil problems won't be problems.

Draeger
Your derision at my comment is unjustified. My comment is basically true. The question was how do you make brazil a power. I correctly pointed out the two main impediments. At no time did I magically overcome them. Quite the opposite.

Like I said in my previous post, in a scenario with Brazil becoming a Superpower, I believe the requirement is to screw USA and Mexico. Without screwing Mexico, Mexico has more reason to be immigration hub than Brazil in an ATL USA screw. We have to count OTL Western USA as Mexico when computing for the USA screw and any possible expansion to USA lands of this ATL Mexico if the scenario is Mexico is stronger and USA is weaker.