It all depends on PoD. If Manchu power is somehow totally butterflied off early enough Russia can eventually (in XVIII-XIX centuries)subdue all the territories to the north of the Great Wall including Eastern Turkestan(as this territories were conquered by Qing).
Now that would be an interesting, if perhaps unlikely, outcome. I guess we would need the Jurchen to never recover from the Mongols, stay disorganized, or get disrupted by Chinese or Koreans, or Japanese.
But more realistic variant is that Manchu state is formed like OTL but they are unable to take large parts of China proper. In this case they would probable make an earlier attempt to conquer various Khalka Mongol states
...probably so, maybe they could make a state that looks like "Mongolia" on the Risk(C) board covering Mongolia, Manchuria and Korea.
and then Dzungaria and Kashgaria . I don’t see the force in the region that can stop Manchu.
I don't think that successful conquest of Dzungaria and Kashgaria is guaranteed in a world where the Manchu fail to take China. Primarily because the Manchu will have to be weaker in some way to have not taken China, and will not have the taxable resources of conquered China to support Manchu western campaigns.
If they are still unable to conquer China the Russian position in the whole Eastern Siberia becomes threatened – while Russia would have some technological advance over this Manchu-Mongol state the latter’s army would be much MUCH larger and Manchu would pay much bigger attention to their north border. So it is possible that Russia would lose all the territories East of Baikal.
Interesting, so you think that the Manchu state would hold onto the the whole region of the early 20th century "Far East Republic" (map attached) so denying Russia that temperate zone territory and the silver-mining region around Nerchinsk and Chita? Or would the Manchu likely hold onto territories even further north, leading up to Okhotsk and Yakutsk?
While Russia would have some technological advance over this Manchu-Mongol state the latter’s army would be much MUCH larger
I'm thinking the Manchu-Mongol state, if it chose to hold on in the north against the Russians, could likely do so through the whole 18th century and early 19th century, but then in the middle and later 19th century, the Manchu-Mongol state would find the Russians unstoppable, as the Kazakh hordes, Bukhara and Khiva did, so Russia would probably still have dominion over Port Arthur by the turn of the 20th century.
Of course, if I am wrong, and a Manchu-Mongol state is more resilient about keeping Russia from the Pacific coast in the late 19th century, Japan may end up supporting it as a buffer state and find itself with a freer hand in northeast Asia.
The history of China would also be completely different without Qing dynasty and I can’t realistically predict its course.
fair enough--
So I think that Ming repelling Manchu would actually lessen Russian influence and territory in the Far East not increase it.
more likely than not, I suppose, unless the Manchu are utterly depleted by the process of Chinese resistance or Chinese counter-attack. Especially once they've taken Beijing, the Manchu will employ all their might to hold it. If they are overcome, they might not have anything left.
For instance in case a proper industry emerges near Amur by late XVIII-early XIX centuries, Russian Far East can even try independence as it can have the necessary resources and population and is almost unlinked to Russia proper before transcontinental railroad can be built.
This is a nifty little idea I had not thought of. Not guaranteed to happen, but a possibility.
Now I want to reach back to your earlier post-
With any realistic POD Manchu would still have more power in the region in 1650-1750s but if Russia does not try to “steal” Qing vassal as it was seen by Manchu Qing may not bother to wage war over almost empty region. And by the time the region would worth something, the effort to take it would increase as well
....interesting PoD idea...
(more or less this happened to Nerchinsk region in OTL; Manchu definitely could take the region from Russia in XVII century but were not motivated enough to do it).
Which brings up another interesting scenario. What might have motivated the Manchu to drive back the Russians more in the Far East and eastern Siberia in the late 17th early 18th centuries? (a) greed for Nerchinsk silver, b) more aggressive, yet still pathetic, Russian expansion attempts, c) a nostalgic desire to reconstruct the northern frontiers of Kublai Khan--which went north aways on the Yenisei river in central Siberia, or d) a TL where the Dzungars are weak or disorganized and so the Qing do not need to worry about a potential Dzungar-Russian alliance, which in OTL motivated them to neutralize the Russians)
--snip exploration of earlier Russian advance and its knock on implications----
There is a number of PODs that lead Russians to begin their conquest of Siberia a few decades earlier(the simplest one but not the most realistic is an order by Ivan IV to conquest Siberian Khanate in 1550s after the conquest of Kazan and Astrakhan). The most realistic one in my opinion is taking Kazan in 1530.
So that advances the Russian advance to the east by about 22 years?
In OTL Russian troops stood by the open gates of the city for several hours while two Russian commanders Glinsky and Belsky argued who should first enter until the gates were closed. If one of the commanders is ill Russia could have annexed Kazan Khanate in 1530. In this case the Russian conquest of Siberian Khanate in 1550 is much more realistic.
...advancing the Russian breakout across the Urals by about 30 years....and presumably east of Sibir, there are no natives really organized enough to slow their advance to the Pacific 30 years ahead of OTL's schedule---so Okhotsk founded in 1619 instead of 1649.