Royal Flush: An 1813 Battle of Leipzig POD

John Farson

Banned
On October 15th, 1813, the night before the beginning of the Battle of Leipzig, French Colonel Marbot saw a group of Allied staff officers observing the French line from a nearby hill. Hoping to snatch some prisoners, he dispatched some cavalry squadrons to capture them. Alerted when a French soldier accidentally fired his weapon, the Allied "officers" turned and fled, barely escaping capture.

Only later was it discovered that the group of Allied "staff officers" included Czar Alexander I, King Frederick William III of Prussia and some of the most important generals of the Russian and Prussian armies.

What if the hapless unknown soldier hadn't fired his gun, and the whole bunch of them would have been caught unawares by the French? How would this affect the battle and the wider war? At the very least it would be a massive embarrassment for Alex, Freddy and their generals, for sure:eek::p
 

Arkocento

Donor
On October 15th, 1813, the night before the beginning of the Battle of Leipzig, French Colonel Marbot saw a group of Allied staff officers observing the French line from a nearby hill. Hoping to snatch some prisoners, he dispatched some cavalry squadrons to capture them. Alerted when a French soldier accidentally fired his weapon, the Allied "officers" turned and fled, barely escaping capture.

Only later was it discovered that the group of Allied "staff officers" included Czar Alexander I, King Frederick William III of Prussia and some of the most important generals of the Russian and Prussian armies.

What if the hapless unknown soldier hadn't fired his gun, and the whole bunch of them would have been caught unawares by the French? How would this affect the battle and the wider war? At the very least it would be a massive embarrassment for Alex, Freddy and their generals, for sure:eek::p

Unless we actually get the names of these important generals, I have no idea what would occur. If Prussia bows out, Europe hates them, if the Czar tries to bow out, he is no longer the Tsar.

Most Likely scenario: As the battle raged, on the 18th of October Napoleon asked for a ceasefire. Chances are that Ceasefire occurs, and the French forces are stronger when they retreat. the Tsar and King feel like fools, and do all in their power to Storm after Napoleon when they get the chance.

Other than that, Leipzig is still going to happen.
 

Redbeard

Banned
Actually it might be an advantage to the allies. Anyway the allied commander Schwarzenberg had serious trouble from the Monarchs intervening in his operations, especially the Zar. It was so the Zar who refused to deploy Russian troops west of the Elster/Pleisse (The left flank of the allied main army) and this very much contributed to the allied main army not being able to cut off Napoleons retreat or pursuit him.

In contemporary history writing (since late 19th century) Schwarzenberg rarely gets good press, but IMHO he, and his chief of staff Radetsky, were excellent commanders and would have been even better without the pompous Zar interfering.

I could imagine some level of panic in the allied camp when both the Zar and the King of Prussia is missing, and Schwarzenberg saying: "Are they missing? Oh how terribly sorry I am for that - really...:D "
 

Redbeard

Banned
Unless we actually get the names of these important generals, I have no idea what would occur. If Prussia bows out, Europe hates them, if the Czar tries to bow out, he is no longer the Tsar.

Most Likely scenario: As the battle raged, on the 18th of October Napoleon asked for a ceasefire. Chances are that Ceasefire occurs, and the French forces are stronger when they retreat. the Tsar and King feel like fools, and do all in their power to Storm after Napoleon when they get the chance.

Other than that, Leipzig is still going to happen.

The Russian and Prussian Armycorps commanders would still be with their troops. The officers with the Monarchs would mainly be staff officers, aides and courtiers.
 
No. If the emperor of Russian and the king of Prussia are captured, the consequences are the same as if Napoleon had been captured.

The coalition falls apart. Alexander was the soul of the coalition. He was the one who decided the strategy of counterattacking immediately in 1813 rather than wait king for Russian to recover.
 

Arkocento

Donor
No. If the emperor of Russian and the king of Prussia are captured, the consequences are the same as if Napoleon had been captured.

The coalition falls apart. Alexander was the soul of the coalition. He was the one who decided the strategy of counterattacking immediately in 1813 rather than wait king for Russian to recover.

Again, the response would be mitigated by the second order counterfactuals. Alexander and Frederick are traded back to the coalition under the assumption that they will negotiate with Napoleon. Ceasefire occurs, and shortly afterwards is broken. Fredrick and Alexander are more cautious individually but push harder against Napoleon.

Or the negotiations are successful. If Napoleon keeps the Rhine as a border,It doesn't last. he wont keep italy, and he wont keep spain
 
Again, the response would be mitigated by the second order counterfactuals. Alexander and Frederick are traded back to the coalition under the assumption that they will negotiate with Napoleon. Ceasefire occurs, and shortly afterwards is broken. Fredrick and Alexander are more cautious individually but push harder against Napoleon.

Or the negotiations are successful. If Napoleon keeps the Rhine as a border,It doesn't last. he wont keep italy, and he wont keep spain
Does allowing Napoleon get back to France benefit Napoleon or the coalition more?
 

Arkocento

Donor
Does allowing Napoleon get back to France benefit Napoleon or the coalition more?

Without Napoleon being his regularly aggressive visionary self manning the helm of France, the Person in charge as his replacement would most likely sue for peace, gaining more for France then Napoleon ever could. Imagine a Concert of Europe occurring with France is a far more stable situation during the post Napoleonic war times.

After that, Butterflies get too blurry for me.
 
Again, the response would be mitigated by the second order counterfactuals. Alexander and Frederick are traded back to the coalition under the assumption that they will negotiate with Napoleon. Ceasefire occurs, and shortly afterwards is broken. Fredrick and Alexander are more cautious individually but push harder against Napoleon.

Or the negotiations are successful. If Napoleon keeps the Rhine as a border,It doesn't last. he wont keep italy, and he wont keep spain

No. Napoleon won't make twice the same mistake as the truce that enabled the coalition to be joined by Austria. And the capture of Alexander and Frederick would have quite the same effect as the miracle of the house of Brandebourg.

Napoleon will most certainly keep Eugene and Murat on the italian thrones but will need to hand back Rome and central Italy. And he Will have to cut legal links between himself and the kingdom of Italy.

Spain is of course already french-free and he'll be quite happy to be rid of the spanish quagmire.

He will have to restore an independant Netherlands just north of the Rhine to satisfy the UK.

And he will be forced to compromise with Austria about Germany. The Rhine confederacy will have to be free of french military presence.

But he will not hand back more, especially on the french frontiers.
 
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Again, the response would be mitigated by the second order counterfactuals. Alexander and Frederick are traded back to the coalition under the assumption that they will negotiate with Napoleon. Ceasefire occurs, and shortly afterwards is broken. Fredrick and Alexander are more cautious individually but push harder against Napoleon.

Or the negotiations are successful. If Napoleon keeps the Rhine as a border,It doesn't last. he wont keep italy, and he wont keep spain

A mere promise to negotiate seems like a light price to pay for getting the monarch of your country back. Couldn't Napoleon have dictated peace terms to those two while they were in captivity? They wouldn't have been in any position to resist.
 
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