WI: France Invades the US During the Maximilliano Affair

What if during the French occupation of Mexico in the mid-1860's the French Empire saw the opportunity to seize by force territory of the southwest United States while it is locked in it's own civil war? This means it does not ally with the Confederacy to grant it independence, but simply takes advantage of the US' situation and invades with the intent of conquest of more colonies in the Americas.
 

Alcsentre Calanice

Gone Fishin'
Napoleon III will be known to history as "Napoleon the Crazy" who led his army into doom.

Prussia will have a very easy task in destroying the French army shattered by a lost war on another continent.
 
How does France get its troops to the SW US? They had trouble enough holding onto Mexico.

How does the UK react with France's land grab?
 

Asami

Banned
How does France get its troops to the SW US? They had trouble enough holding onto Mexico.

How does the UK react with France's land grab?

the U.K. backed the Monroe Doctrine so they'd probably be pissed.
 
What if during the French occupation of Mexico in the mid-1860's the French Empire saw the opportunity to seize by force territory of the southwest United States while it is locked in it's own civil war? This means it does not ally with the Confederacy to grant it independence, but simply takes advantage of the US' situation and invades with the intent of conquest of more colonies in the Americas.

The Union would crush the French, and the real question is whether they decide to take another bite out of Mexico. The Gadsden Purchase is just over a decade old, and the US was interested in buying up more of Mexico than the Mexicans were willing to sell, so the potential is there.

The big problem for the French here, and the reason it's hopeless, is that they never controlled Mexico - there was always significant resistance that couldn't be crushed. The Union wasn't tapped for manpower like the Confederacy was; it was tapped for useful ways to spend that manpower, and wasn't worth the cost (political and financial) to mobilize it. A French invasion? Pull out all the stops and fight the invaders.

The British would have had problems launching a successful invasion, and they would have been attacking from a stable and strong Canada. The French out of Mexico had no chance.
 
even if France's land forces ultimately fail, their navy could be a hassle... from earlier discussions similar to this, it's been noted that the French navy at the time outclassed the USN in a lot of ways, so the blockade against the south might be broken for a while... which will have some consequences in the ACW...
 

TFSmith121

Banned
The French expeditionary force in Mexico

What if during the French occupation of Mexico in the mid-1860's the French Empire saw the opportunity to seize by force territory of the southwest United States while it is locked in it's own civil war? This means it does not ally with the Confederacy to grant it independence, but simply takes advantage of the US' situation and invades with the intent of conquest of more colonies in the Americas.

The French expeditionary force in Mexico numbered ~40,000 French troops, and another ~30,000 mercenaries and pro-French Mexicans, and even before the French evacuated, the Mexican nationalists held the border regions ... The French never controlled all of Mexico; they could not have managed any sort of expedition into (for example) the New Mexico Territory.

Best,
 
If the French intervene with British OK during the war (say 1862 or so) they can break the blockade with their superior navy and place the Union under blockade. Free trade for the Confederacy, its coast protected (New Orleans and other footholds recaptured) and in no need of garrisons and the opposite for the Union, plus instructors and a few thousand volunteers for the Confederacy might swing the war in their favour.

Remember that without nitrates from South America, the US will be hard-pressed to produce gunpowder enough to continue the war - once the Pacific railroad is complete, things change, because there's no way the French can blockade the US west coast.

France can easily win on sea, but they cannot invade a US that is not in civil war.
 
Big problem for France. Bazaine was historically iffy about going north precisely because he knew he didn't have the strength to take on any incursion by the US if an incident occurred.

France wasn't going to take on the US by herself, she has bad neighbors on the continent and the French at their peak had barely some 38,000 troops committed to the adventure (not counting the Belgians, Austrians, and Mexicans).
 
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