Zheng He colonizes Africa.

Nocrazy · Aug 1, 2015

Okay, so, I read that a Chinese sailor actually was able to reach Africa. This guy:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zheng_He

So, I had the idea for a collaborative TL where China sets up some colonies in East Africa. Eventually, China is able to spread upwards to North Africa, and soon makes contact with Europe.

What issues next is fight for survival as China, wanting to ensure itself as the dominate power of the Mediterranean, invades Italy, sparking a massive war against a coalition of European and Asian nations fighting for the what starts out as the Italian Peninsula, but soon spreads to Greece and Iberia.

So, would anyone like to help out?

GdwnsnHo · Aug 1, 2015

It is an interesting idea, but I hate to point out a few problems with the premise.

1) Any colony at that range at that point in history? It couldn't feasibly be considered "China". Chinese Africa, yes - and it'd have to be able to stand on its own feet - and likely separate after the first change in dynasty.

2) Some colonies would work, but I'm not entirely sure you'd get any mass-migration, chances are you'd see the emergence of a Afro-Chinese culture (perhaps Somali-Chinese if they land in the Horn of Africa, or Swahili-Chinese if further south).

3) Moving into the Med, seems odd - they're going to have a difficult time having the manpower to establish themselves in their new colony. Even after all that, the colony will likely just act as a port of call from traders in Egypt and India. It would make significant money, and if it becomes a decent goods supplier and source of goods, it could really screw with the Indian Ocean trade networks - but why move into the Med - if they are based in East Africa, there is the Sahara as a barrier (even if they can go up the Red Sea, that is a dangerous lifeline to rely on if they don't have total control).

4) Egypt isn't an easy conquest, the manpower will be important, and any attempt at invasion will unleash the Caliphate, one of the major trade partners of such a colony. A Chinese colony attempting to take Egypt at the same times as the Ottomans are on the rise (butterflies willing), I wouldn't be putting my money on the colony.

I'm interested, but moving into the Med just seems like the last thing any such colony would be interested in.

LSCatilina · Aug 1, 2015

Chinese presence in Indian Ocean is quite the old thing, even with Zheng He expeditions (T'ang sailors were present in India, and possible along Persian tradeways as well, which went as far as Eastern Africa).

Thing is, it never went to a political takeover : it simply didn't really interested Chinese ruling elites, that had everything they wanted so in their immediate proximity. Even with a dominating Chinese presence in the Eastern Sea, you didn't really have a tentative of coastal takeover on, say, Philippines...So doing so in Eastern Africa would be a bit "OOC".

A recurrent analogy on Zheng He expeditions is the Apollo Program : a good part (even if it doesn't summarize it all) is about political prestige, critically with an emperor rejecting mandarins' administration in favour of ennuch's and in need of legitimacy face to inner opposition. What better than making expedition in half of the known world and make everyone there acknowledge China was the world power?
And as the Apollo Program, the whole thing costed a lot, even for Ming China : the pressure from Mongolia, the inner pressure, eventually would have put an end to it.

A political presence of China in the Indian Ocea, IMO, isn't at all impossible but would require a massive cultural and political change before the XVth.
As in earlier dynasties getting more interested on foreign presence, maybe a divided China with a southern dynasty based on the southern Eastern Sea coast?

Of course, anything concerning a China stretching from Atlantic to Pacific seems a bit implausible : even at the height of its power, Ming China still had to deal with northern pressure and "attacking everyone in sight" would probably mean a "perfect storm" outcome, with a depleted treasury, raids and invasions from other fronts, and inner revolts. To say nothing of a relative absence of Chinese "expansionist imperialism" at this point, clientelisation/vassalisation/assimilation being generally a favoured way.

Nocrazy · Aug 1, 2015

Good points have been raised, and I will address as follows.

1. China and the Caliphate ally with each other as means of ensuring security trade against continually resurgent Europeans.

2. Yeah, politics in China do change considerably, with the Chinese being given a more expansionist and authoritarian dynasty, one which turns Korea and Japan into Chinese vassals. (Well, some Japanese states in the South)

3. China uses the Red Sea to get to Cairo, and uses the Nile River heavily to also ensure it can reach Egypt. As part of it's alliance with the Caliphate, China agrees to support it's claims over Egypt, and will instead settle for influence in the Mediterranean. Thus, the first brewing of the Grand War are set in motion.

LSCatilina · Aug 1, 2015

1. Erm...In the XVth century, the Caliph is in Egypt, under Mameluk sultanate, I'm afraid.

2. If they change considerably, it won't be overnight and without some tears and blood. Remember, we're not only talking political changes, but as well cultural and social there : it would mean sacrificing inner order and stability (and welcoming outside intervention) for the sake of a possibly more expansionist China. I don't think many would be willing to undergo such deal for the sake of a more-European looking Chinese imperialism.

3. Undergoing massive and far campaign is going to cost a lot, on treasury, supply and human ressources; making the whole Zheng He expeditions cost looking as change money in comparison. China isn't an infinite pool of money, food and soldiers; they already had to focus on their IOTL border and it didn't came cheap.

Nocrazy · Aug 1, 2015

LSCatilina said:
1. Erm...In the XVth century, the Caliph is in Egypt, under Mameluk sultanate, I'm afraid.

2. If they change considerably, it won't be overnight and without some tears and blood. Remember, we're not only talking political changes, but as well cultural and social there : it would mean sacrificing inner order and stability (and welcoming outside intervention) for the sake of a possibly more expansionist China. I don't think many would be willing to undergo such deal for the sake of a more-European looking Chinese imperialism.

3. Undergoing massive and far campaign is going to cost a lot, on treasury, supply and human ressources; making the whole Zheng He expeditions cost looking as change money in comparison. China isn't an infinite pool of money, food and soldiers; they already had to focus on their IOTL border and it didn't came cheap.

Well, what would you suggest?

Booster Gold · Aug 1, 2015

Nocrazy said:
Well, what would you suggest?

There are infinitely better and closer places for the Chinese to establish themselves. If they, for whatever reason, decide on overseas empire, taking over the Indian ocean is far more of a prize. In the 15th century, Europe is a comparative backwater with little of interest to the Ming. It would be like America conquering Mozambique.

So build your empire in the Indian Ocean. Have the Chinese try and establish suzerainty in India which has always been quite the prize for any would be conqueror. Still a bit OTT, but at least plausible.

LSCatilina · Aug 1, 2015

Nocrazy said:
Well, what would you suggest?

Well, a much earlier build-up would probably be necessary. I'm not really knowledgable about Chinese history, but what about a dynasty, in a divided China (at least on a first time) based on the southern Eastern Sea coast, and eventually having to rely much more on seafare and coastal trade (mostly when an unified China have direct access to land trade roads) for ressources?

Without a sole empire understanding itself as the center of the world where anything worthwile was there, maybe it could work, especially without the cultural trauma of Mongol invasions that, from what I understood, only accentuated the distinctiveness of traders in Chinese societies, for what mattered relations with the "outside".

With an equivalent relationship as the one that existed in Europe between financials and political power (rather from a distinction that may have been due to Mongol takeover)...You may end with a more maritime-minded Chinese state (not that Chinese traders weren't present everywhere in Asia, IOTL, but I'm talking about a political motivation there).

The big problem is that a southern dynasty (or its northern rivals) would still be pretty much driven to "gather the lands" of China. You may need to have a quite finely tuned situation where any reunification at short or middle term can't be made (while a later unification, whoever responsible, may integrate these changes on a new Chinese unified empire).

What do you think?

Nocrazy · Aug 2, 2015

LSCatilina said:
Well, a much earlier build-up would probably be necessary. I'm not really knowledgable about Chinese history, but what about a dynasty, in a divided China (at least on a first time) based on the southern Eastern Sea coast, and eventually having to rely much more on seafare and coastal trade (mostly when an unified China have direct access to land trade roads) for ressources?

Without a sole empire understanding itself as the center of the world where anything worthwile was there, maybe it could work, especially without the cultural trauma of Mongol invasions that, from what I understood, only accentuated the distinctiveness of traders in Chinese societies, for what mattered relations with the "outside".

With an equivalent relationship as the one that existed in Europe between financials and political power (rather from a distinction that may have been due to Mongol takeover)...You may end with a more maritime-minded Chinese state (not that Chinese traders weren't present everywhere in Asia, IOTL, but I'm talking about a political motivation there).

The big problem is that a southern dynasty (or its northern rivals) would still be pretty much driven to "gather the lands" of China. You may need to have a quite finely tuned situation where any reunification at short or middle term can't be made (while a later unification, whoever responsible, may integrate these changes on a new Chinese unified empire).

What do you think?

Yeah, I guess it could work.

Sycamore · Aug 2, 2015

Booster Gold said:
There are infinitely better and closer places for the Chinese to establish themselves. If they, for whatever reason, decide on overseas empire, taking over the Indian ocean is far more of a prize. In the 15th century, Europe is a comparative backwater with little of interest to the Ming. It would be like America conquering Mozambique.

So build your empire in the Indian Ocean. Have the Chinese try and establish suzerainty in India which has always been quite the prize for any would be conqueror. Still a bit OTT, but at least plausible.

So what about Mozambique then? What if Zheng He carries on down the coast of East Africa on his 4th Voyage? IOTL, he turned back after reaching Malindi (the southernmost trading outpost which wasn't part of the Kilwa Sultanate/ Confederation at the time); what if he'd kept going to Mombasa (only 120 miles further), thence on to the other major port cities in the Kilwa Sultanate which he'd hear about in Mombasa- Zanzibar, Kilwa and Mozambique, eventually travelling down the coast as far as Sofala, before turning back and making the return voyage (dropping by the small trading posts claimed by the Kilwa Sultanate along the western and northern coastlines of Madagascar along the way)?

Sofala, in particular, would be an obvious choice for Chinese colonisation. This crucial port city, which was at this time the greatest export centre of gold and ivory in the world, still technically belonged to the Kingdom of Monomutapa at this point; the Swahili community had to pay tribute to them for their permission to reside and trade there. The Sultan of Kilwa only had jurisdiction over the Swahili residents, and his governor was more akin to a consul than a ruler- Sofala still retained a great degree of autonomy, and discontent simmered in this city at the perceived interference in their affairs by the Sultan of Kilwa.

Sofala was easily the most dominant coastal city south of Kilwa itself. The mission objectives assigned to Zheng He's treasure fleets by the Yongle Emperor were to establish Chinese dominance and impose imperial control over the Indian Ocean trade; to impress foreign peoples in the Indian Ocean basin; to extend the empire's tributary system; and to bring back treasure. As such, Sofala is by far the single greatest prize on offer within Zheng He's reach, and its acquisition could go the furthest to meeting all of these objectives. The gold output of the Kingdom of Monomutapa (and its successor IOTL, the Rozwi Empire), all of which was traded through the port of Sofala alone, would exceed all of the gold brought back from the New World until the dawn of the nineteenth century. As such, after Ming dynasty causes hyper-inflation by issuing too much paper money, causing hyper-inflation and forcing them to suspend the use of paper currency in 1425, Ming China would adopt gold, since they'd now indirectly control the largest source of this precious metal in the entire world (with Monomutapa swiftly becoming either a Chinese vassal state, getting subjugated in a similar manner to the Kingdom of Kongo's subjugation by the Portuguese, or becoming a major world power in its own right, enriched and empowered by selling its gold to the Ming in exactly the same manner that Japan was enriched and empowered by selling its silver to the Ming IOTL), instead of silver as IOTL. As such, when the Europeans get around the Cape, their merchants won't have anywhere near the leverage or soft power that they did IOTL; and this one POD may be enough to butterfly away the second wave of European colonialism entirely.

And all Zheng He has to do is get there, and to outbid the Sultanate of Kilwa- which, given the cargo capacity of the treasure ships in his flotilla, should be a trifling matter- for the Kingdom of Monomutapa to oust the Sultanate of Kilwa's consul, and grant their permission to reside and trade in Sofala to the newly arrived, far wealthier Ming Chinese traders instead. And there'd be plenty of them. Just from the shipwrecks IOTL, you have the people of Pate Island on the Lamu archipelago who've been shown to have descended from 20 stranded Chinese sailors from Zheng He's fleet, founding the settlements of "Old Shanga", and "New Shanga" on the islands, and introducing Chinese Ming Dynasty tombs, made out of coral, to the graveyards on the island.

Several tribes even further south, to Cape Town's north, claim descent from Chinese sailors during the 13th century, a few decades prior to Zheng He's expeditions; visibly similar to the Chinese in their appearance, with a Mandarin-derived tonal language, they call themselves the Awatwa, or "abandoned people" today. ITTL, if these communities aren't abandoned by the rulers of China, but instead remain connected to China through the establishment of trade links in the same way that the Chinese communities in South-East Asia did, then these Chinese traders and settlers could easily form overseas communities which come to dominate large colonial enclaves, and perhaps even Sinicise large regions permanently. Madagascar, for instance- at this time, Madagascar's aboriginal population was less than a third that of Taiwan. So, even in spite of the greater distances involved, I'd say that it wouldn't be far-fetched at all for the island of Madagscar ITTL to become a Chinese colony in much the same manner as the island of Taiwan did...

Nocrazy · Aug 2, 2015

Sycamore said:
So what about Mozambique then? What if Zheng He carries on down the coast of East Africa on his 4th Voyage? IOTL, he turned back after reaching Malindi (the southernmost trading outpost which wasn't part of the Kilwa Sultanate/ Confederation at the time); what if he'd kept going to Mombasa (only 120 miles further), thence on to the other major port cities in the Kilwa Sultanate which he'd hear about in Mombasa- Zanzibar, Kilwa and Mozambique, eventually travelling down the coast as far as Sofala, before turning back and making the return voyage (dropping by the small trading posts claimed by the Kilwa Sultanate along the western and northern coastlines of Madagascar along the way)?

Sofala, in particular, would be an obvious choice for Chinese colonisation. This crucial port city, which was at this time the greatest export centre of gold and ivory in the world, still technically belonged to the Kingdom of Monomutapa at this point; the Swahili community had to pay tribute to them for their permission to reside and trade there. The Sultan of Kilwa only had jurisdiction over the Swahili residents, and his governor was more akin to a consul than a ruler- Sofala still retained a great degree of autonomy, and discontent simmered in this city at the perceived interference in their affairs by the Sultan of Kilwa.

Sofala was easily the most dominant coastal city south of Kilwa itself. The mission objectives assigned to Zheng He's treasure fleets by the Yongle Emperor were to establish Chinese dominance and impose imperial control over the Indian Ocean trade; to impress foreign peoples in the Indian Ocean basin; to extend the empire's tributary system; and to bring back treasure. As such, Sofala is by far the single greatest prize on offer within Zheng He's reach, and its acquisition could go the furthest to meeting all of these objectives. The gold output of the Kingdom of Monomutapa (and its successor IOTL, the Rozwi Empire), all of which was traded through the port of Sofala alone, would exceed all of the gold brought back from the New World until the dawn of the nineteenth century. As such, after Ming dynasty causes hyper-inflation by issuing too much paper money, causing hyper-inflation and forcing them to suspend the use of paper currency in 1425, Ming China would adopt gold, since they'd now indirectly control the largest source of this precious metal in the entire world (with Monomutapa swiftly becoming either a Chinese vassal state, getting subjugated in a similar manner to the Kingdom of Kongo's subjugation by the Portuguese, or becoming a major world power in its own right, enriched and empowered by selling its gold to the Ming in exactly the same manner that Japan was enriched and empowered by selling its silver to the Ming IOTL), instead of silver as IOTL. As such, when the Europeans get around the Cape, their merchants won't have anywhere near the leverage or soft power that they did IOTL; and this one POD may be enough to butterfly away the second wave of European colonialism entirely.

And all Zheng He has to do is get there, and to outbid the Sultanate of Kilwa- which, given the cargo capacity of the treasure ships in his flotilla, should be a trifling matter- for the Kingdom of Monomutapa to oust the Sultanate of Kilwa's consul, and grant their permission to reside and trade in Sofala to the newly arrived, far wealthier Ming Chinese traders instead. And there'd be plenty of them. Just from the shipwrecks IOTL, you have the people of Pate Island on the Lamu archipelago who've been shown to have descended from 20 stranded Chinese sailors from Zheng He's fleet, founding the settlements of "Old Shanga", and "New Shanga" on the islands, and introducing Chinese Ming Dynasty tombs, made out of coral, to the graveyards on the island.

Several tribes even further south, to Cape Town's north, claim descent from Chinese sailors during the 13th century, a few decades prior to Zheng He's expeditions; visibly similar to the Chinese in their appearance, with a Mandarin-derived tonal language, they call themselves the Awatwa, or "abandoned people" today. ITTL, if these communities aren't abandoned by the rulers of China, but instead remain connected to China through the establishment of trade links in the same way that the Chinese communities in South-East Asia did, then these Chinese traders and settlers could easily form overseas communities which come to dominate large colonial enclaves, and perhaps even Sinicise large regions permanently. Madagascar, for instance- at this time, Madagascar's aboriginal population was less than a third that of Taiwan. So, even in spite of the greater distances involved, I'd say that it wouldn't be far-fetched at all for the island of Madagscar ITTL to become a Chinese colony in much the same manner as the island of Taiwan did...

Interesting. So, of course, how would this work in regard to the idea of China invading Europe? Course, once the Europeans realize that hey, the largest source of gold is controlled by us, they will be MAD!

LSCatilina · Aug 2, 2015

You'd still need a motivation for Chinese to plant there a political presence, that would be basically saying "hey China isn't the center of the universe, because we need what's outside".

Formose's sinicization is not due to any kind of colonisation motivated by trade or prestige : it really began only in the mid-XVIIth century as an anti-Qing faction moved from continental China, forcing Manchus to crush Zheng presence.

Even Japan get interested earlier than that to the island : it does seems as far-fetched to argue that Ming would get interested on African settlement and political presence, when they didn't were even for lands that were litteraly within their "Mediterranean Sea" equivalent.

Nocrazy · Aug 2, 2015

LSCatilina said:
You'd still need a motivation for Chinese to plant there a political presence, that would be basically saying "hey China isn't the center of the universe, because we need what's outside".

Formose's sinicization is not due to any kind of colonisation motivated by trade or prestige : it really began only in the mid-XVIIth century as an anti-Qing faction moved from continental China, forcing Manchus to crush Zheng presence.

Even Japan get interested earlier than that to the island : it does seems as far-fetched to argue that Ming would get interested on African settlement and political presence, when they didn't were even for lands that were litteraly within their "Mediterranean Sea" equivalent.

Easy. China must spread her culture for the rest of the world.

Sycamore · Aug 2, 2015

LSCatilina said:
You'd still need a motivation for Chinese to plant there a political presence, that would be basically saying "hey China isn't the center of the universe, because we need what's outside".

Formose's sinicization is not due to any kind of colonisation motivated by trade or prestige : it really began only in the mid-XVIIth century as an anti-Qing faction moved from continental China, forcing Manchus to crush Zheng presence.

Even Japan get interested earlier than that to the island : it does seems as far-fetched to argue that Ming would get interested on African settlement and political presence, when they didn't were even for lands that were litteraly within their "Mediterranean Sea" equivalent.

Why? If they move to the gold standard instead of the silver standard, then they'd have every reason to get interested on establishing settlements and a political presence in Africa. The economic security of the Ming Dynasty would would depend upon it, and the colonization and/or gaining of vassal states in this specific region could be the single POD which gives Ming China the greatest chance of enduring rather than collapsing as it did IOTL. And of course, that wouldn't be saying "Hey China isn't the center of the universe, because we need what's outside"; on the contrary, it would be saying "Hey, China is the center of the universe, because nowhere is outside of China".

LSCatilina · Aug 2, 2015

Nocrazy said:
Easy. China must spread her culture for the rest of the world.

Which poses the question WHY it didn't went this way IOTL. The sinicization of Korea, Vietnam, Japan, etc. wasn't due to any kind of cultural imperialism from China, but mimetism from bordering states.

"Spreading culture" and cultural imperialism as a concious policy seems to be quite contradictory to the Chinese policies up to the late XIXth.

Sycamore · Aug 2, 2015

LSCatilina said:
Which poses the question WHY it didn't went this way IOTL. The sinicization of Korea, Vietnam, Japan, etc. wasn't due to any kind of cultural imperialism from China, but mimetism from bordering states.

"Spreading culture" and cultural imperialism as a concious policy seems to be quite contradictory to the Chinese policies up to the late XIXth.

Hence the suggestion that East Africa and Southern Africa could be Sinicized through mimetism from the newly dominant Chinese merchants and their trading posts in these regions ITTL, as opposed to being Arabicised and/or Europeanised as they were by the Arab merchants, and later, the European merchants and their trading posts which became dominant IOTL.

Malta · Aug 2, 2015

He Chinese state setting up colonies? No. As it has been mentioned the state itself had no interest for a variety of not easily hand waved reasonings. Primarily the physical demands of having a huge kingdom along eith external threats but also cultural for the ruling class being heavily linked to the landed gentry.

Non-state actors though I think are a solution. We have Chinese Merchant-pirates and communities from Japan to Burma throughout the southeast asian waters. Manila when it was founded by the Spanish was a boom town for Chinese migrants who were often seen as a threat by Spanish authorities the local population was massacred several times.

You could possibly have a Chinese clan pull a Taiwan, (or Arabs pull a Zanzibar?) setting up shop and becoming the local elites. Perhaps city-state sized even. However anything larger than that will run into difficulties all colonizers had in the region. It was a heavily trafficed and coveted area that already had a lot of native people living there..

Still, a who and why are needed.

LSCatilina · Aug 2, 2015

Sycamore said:
Hence the suggestion that East Africa and Southern Africa could be Sinicized through mimetism from the newly dominant Chinese merchants and their trading posts in these regions ITTL, as opposed to being Arabicised and/or Europeanised as they were by the Arab merchants, and later, the European merchants and their trading posts which became dominant IOTL.

East Africa was already Arabized-Islamized since centuries at this point (and Portuguese presence didn't really provoked an europeanisation of East Africa, as far as I'm aware). It's not about "instead" but about rivality from a Chinese Empire that never went this way, nor showed any interest doing so.

The sinicization of aformentioned entites wasn't made on trade matters (You had chinese merchants everywhere, up to India, but it never really went the way of a regional acculturation), but almost always from political concerns ("If we want to be a strong state, we must do what Chinese do"). Note that it did took centuries and not a quick process as the one you're suggesting.

You'd need huge cultural shifts, and probably a much earlier PoD changing China radically to allow that.

WhatIsAUserName · Aug 2, 2015

Sycamore said:
Why? If they move to the gold standard instead of the silver standard, then they'd have every reason to get interested on establishing settlements and a political presence in Africa. The economic security of the Ming Dynasty would would depend upon it, and the colonization and/or gaining of vassal states in this specific region could be the single POD which gives Ming China the greatest chance of enduring rather than collapsing as it did IOTL. And of course, that wouldn't be saying "Hey China isn't the center of the universe, because we need what's outside"; on the contrary, it would be saying "Hey, China is the center of the universe, because nowhere is outside of China".

China would have no need for something like this switch to gold combined with African colonization. First, paper currency hadn't failed yet, and perhaps the paper currency issue could be fixed if the Ming allowed paper money to be convertible with silver. Second, silver had already been a popular medium of commerce, before the Ming introduced paper currency, and the speed at which silver and copper replaced paper money shows the Chinese economy's preference. Third, I don't think gold is actually in particularly short supply. Ming Dynasty China actually exported gold in exchange for silver, something that suggests it wouldn't be easy to get a gold standard instead of a silver standard.

Any need for colonization fails on the basic point that the tributary system doesn't require military presence to exist. In fact, it's the opposite: the tribute system is what China often fell back upon when it couldn't conquer its neighbors. The Ming state was, overall though not in the early 1400s, fairly opposed to overseas expansion due to tradition and cost. I just can't see the Ming Dynasty invading a faraway land on behalf of an economic system it never adopted.

Napoléon Caesar Augustus · Aug 2, 2015

Why would China even want to go to Europe? It's a poor shithole compared to their own nation. Setting up this massive spree of conquests just to conquer some random backwater no one has even heard of at this point is rather bizarre.