Tsar Abdul Abulbul Ameer?

What would be necessary for the Turks to win in the Russo-Ottoman wars to the extent that the Russian Empire becomes a Turk-led one with Islam as the "official" (at least in a limited capacity) religion?
 
What would be necessary for the Turks to win in the Russo-Ottoman wars to the extent that the Russian Empire becomes a Turk-led one with Islam as the "official" (at least in a limited capacity) religion?

A whole swarm of Godzilla-sized Alien Space Bats. The Ottoman Empire has no plausible chance to conquer Russia in any possible scenario where "Ottoman Empire" and "Russia" mean places roughly coincident with OTL.
It is possible to conceive PODs resulting in a largely Muslim Russia with an elite at least partlu from the Turkic stock, even with a Turkic language reasonably close to Turkish as the prevalent language.
None of those POD, however, could result from the outcome of any of the historical Russo-Ottoman war. The Ottoman powerbase was too badly located to effectively conquer, let alone rule or assimilate, any large part of Russia. A Turkic-Islamic *Russia would be about as likely to clash with the Ottoman Empire as historical Russia for purely geopolitical reasons, at any rate.
 
What would be necessary for the Turks to win in the Russo-Ottoman wars to the extent that the Russian Empire becomes a Turk-led one with Islam as the "official" (at least in a limited capacity) religion?

Wow. I didn't know any one else had even hear of that song! Let alone using it in a thread title without explanation!
 
As I understand it, the Turks have managed to burn Moscow several times alongside their Crimean allies but have never tried to hold it down.
 

Old Airman

Banned
As I understand it, the Turks have managed to burn Moscow several times alongside their Crimean allies but have never tried to hold it down.
Actually, the only TURKISH attempt to participate in the Crimean raids resulted in unmitigated disaster of Molodi
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Molodi
Crimean raids were successful as long as they were raids - swift attacks of a very mobile force against a heavier and less mobile one. Turkic wolf was successful as long as it was able to evade a whack of a paw of the Russian bear. Once the wolf tried to "enforce" itself with a burden of "heavy armour" (janissary and guns), the bear's paw didn't miss. Whack! Game over.

Now, there're 2 ways for a numerous Ottoman invasion force to enter Russia and win. One is up the Dnepr river, another is up the Volga river. Both are dependent on establishing of a very solid bases for invasion and securing the access roads. In all practical terms, Ottoman would need to defeat either Persians or Poles before they can dream about invading Russia. IOTL Russia had to rid itself of Polish threat before being able to become a credible threat to Ottoman hinterland in 1820s.
 
Wow. I didn't know any one else had even hear of that song! Let alone using it in a thread title without explanation!

I wonder what song is that.

Any way, a Tartar POD may work. They did nominally rule Russia for 200+ years during most of which it was mostly Turik in demographics(The Horde not Russia), maybe there is a higher inflow of Turks with an urban tradition/construction of Tartar cities, probably along trade routes. I am thinking something akin to what happened to Arabs in most of the Middle East and central Asia… And while they didn’t become demographically important, the construction of Arab settlements is responsible for much of their cultural expansion.
 
Last edited:
Any way, a Tartar POD may work. They did nominally rule Russia for 200+ years during most of which it was mostly Turik in demographics(The Horde not Russia), maybe there is a higher inflow of Turks with an urban tradition/construction of Tartar cities, probably along trade routes. I am thinking something akin to what happened to Arabs in most of the Middle East and central Asia… And while they didn’t become demographically important, the construction of Arab settlements is responsible for much of their cultural expansion.
I am afraid that wouldn't work.
I mean for that you would need a very alternative Golden Horde and a very alternative Russia. which makes it pretty much ASB.

You see in OTL even the Mongol attempts to place their tax officials into Russia failed. The Russians just rioted, rebelled, murdered these Mongol tax collectors.
Of course the Mongols could have massacred up to 70% of the Russian population and so 'convince' the rest of the Russians to tolerate the Mongol tax official.
But what is the point of the tax collectors if there is nobody to collect taxes from?


Now speaking of the Turkic Tartar settlements in Russia:

As we saw above the first thing needed is genocide of 70% of the Russian population. It is important to note that you cannot murder all the Russians as minimum 30% of the Russian population would be able to hide in the forests.

Now the next step is to convince your non-Nomad Turkic population to settle in Russia:
- "We invite you to settle in depopulated Russia where you freeze your balls off in winter, and where the forests are full of wild mad Russians eager to cut your throat!"
Doesn't sound too promising to me.

And one more thing - in OTL Russia as part of the Golden Horde was able to protect itself against the Western enemies (Lithuania, Sweden etc.) with some insignificant help from the Mongols.
In this ATL (where the Russians are mostly massacred) the Golden Horde would have to protect it's "Tartar Turkic" settlements against the West by itself. Which is difficult, as the main fighting force of the Golden Horde is their nomadic population which is in the steppes; and the Horde did not have garrison troops to speak of.
 
My example were Arab influences in Iran and central Asia which are, insignificant demographically, linguistically to between 10-20% of words, and culturally, aside from Islam Arabs were the ones who assimilated rather than the other way around. My proposal was then nowhere as radical as you may have understood it.


You see in OTL even the Mongol attempts to place their tax officials into Russia failed. The Russians just rioted, rebelled, murdered these Mongol tax collectors.
Interesting, it was my impression that while principalities in Northern and western Russia were more or less independent, the Golden Horde was quite adept at suppressing revolts. And that some eastern principalities like Muscovy paid a tribute to the Mongol hordes up until the late 15th century.
Either way, I admit my knowledge of the tartar horde is murky at best and will stand corrected in this issue.

Of course the Mongols could have massacred up to 70% of the Russian population and so 'convince' the rest of the Russians to tolerate the Mongol tax official.
I completely agree with you, such a development is impossible, in fact I have made a case in the past on why demographic replacement is both extremely unlikely in a pre-industrial setting, and unnecessary for cultural, or linguistic shifts.
OTL sultanate of Rom was very much Turkish culturally, yet there was no significant influx of Turks. There were 2 main kinds of invading “Turk” just like there were 2 main kinds of “Arab” in my first example:
Iranica said:
The Arab infiltration into Iran began before the Muslim conquests and continued as a result of the joint exertions of the civilized Arabs (ahl al-madar) as well is the desert Arabs (ahl al-wabar).
.

Each of those had a particular contribution cultural dynamics; the former establish economic relationships. They also serve as magnets to attract nearby rural populations into towns, were they are again going to form increasing social relationships.
By the 11th century Turik merchants were engaged in the fur trade along the Volga (Martin 1978). The Mongols opened more long distance trade routes. In fact their capital was placed in Sarai to better take advantage of trade with Turks and Persians to the south and east. OTL these Urbanites were not enough in numbers nor sufficiently varied nor penetrated deep enough into Russia to have a significant long term cultural effect.

The latter produce political relationships, OTL we already have a substantial amount of those, Tartars were settling as far as Lithuania proper, Lipka tartars. They seem to have maintained a similar position as their equivalents in Anatolia. We also already have a substantial number of Tartars in the Pontic Steppe, most of which are Turik culturally if not demographically.
At this point Russians are more advanced and developed than the Mongols yet the same can be said of the Roman example, and of the Arabs in relation to both romans and Persians. It would not be the first instance of Pontic steppemen taking over more complex urbanized societies.
Granted the logistics of securing the Roman Empire are much simpler than those of western Russia. Then again OTL there are several terms associated with government that can be traced to the Mongol period. (Halperin 1982) (Vasary 1976) Proving that these political relationships existed at one point.

Now speaking of the Turkic Tartar settlements in Russia:
As we saw above the first thing needed is genocide of 70% of the Russian population. It is important to note that you cannot murder all the Russians as minimum 30% of the Russian population would be able to hide in the forests.

Not at all, that is not needed, we probably require no population replacement at all. In fact if we follow my original example there is likely to be less replacement between Rus and Tartars than OTL:

Iranica said:
many of the Arabs attempted to seize lands for themselves; throughout the period of the conquests the term “emigrant” (mohāǰer) was used almost synonymously with “warrior.” Caliph ʿOmar (13-23/634-44) discouraged such excesses. Even though the region was taken by conquest, the people were generally granted protected (ḏemmī) status and not enslaved; steps were taken to keep peasants on the land, and the state, rather than the soldiers, took title to as much of it as possible. To prevent the Arabs from dispersing to private estates, ʿOmar ordered them to congregate in new camp cities or “emporiums”
.
OTL some tartars did usurp lands, it is not unreasonable for a more centralized/urban Tartar horde, to opt for a similar policy… An early institution of such would both facilitate tax collection, at least until the settled tartars decided their interests were closer to the Rus’s than to the Khan’s.

Iranica said:
Within a generation Kūfa reportedly had 80,000 households (with 60,000 soldiers) and Baṣra had 120,000 households (80,000 soldiers), representing total populations of perhaps, 300,000 and 500,000 respectively. Since it is almost inconceivable that so many people could have migrated from Arabia, they must have included many migrants from the Iraqi countryside.
.

So we probably have some Muslim Turk settlers from further south (Rome, Persia, Central Asia, even China) making trade posts/garrisons further upstream(think of it as more Turik towns, like Meshchersk, Kazan, Astrakhan) in the Volga and the Don. Then nearby rural Russians, and Tartars settle there for economic reasons and take to some of the customs of the Muslims, with a large minority converting to Islam.

These can also serve as a magnet for the Turkish and Arab merchants mentioned before, an emporium further north and closer to the fur’s origin would receive more support from the Mongols early on, and could snowball in to the place of OTL’s Moscow, similar to how Bagdad replaced Ctesiphon…
A more settled and centralized Tartar population, would mean less frontier raiding, OTL the main source of animosity between Russians and Tartars.







Now the next step is to convince your non-Nomad Turkic population to settle in Russia:
- "We invite you to settle in depopulated Russia where you freeze your balls off in winter, and where the forests are full of wild mad Russians eager to cut your throat!"
Doesn't sound too promising to me.
I agree that this is the hard part.
The Tartar horde is mostly made up of Cumans and other tribes lacking in a urban tradition unlike both the Seljuks and the Arabs, who while nomadic were aware and in contact with centralized urban realms. A different more worldly Mongol leadership is still not so far-fetched as to be ASB.

A possible POV could be a different partition of the Mongol empire, that way there would be a more significant cultural exchange between urbanized parts of the Mongol empire Like Iran and Khwarizmi.
In OTL Anatolia one of the factors most important to the culture shift was the arrival or craftsmen and traders from the Seljuk Empire early on. A Mongol horde that converts to Islam Earlier would invite a similar process.

And one more thing - in OTL Russia as part of the Golden Horde was able to protect itself against the Western enemies (Lithuania, Sweden etc.) with some insignificant help from the Mongols.
In this ATL (where the Russians are mostly massacred) the Golden Horde would have to protect it's "Tartar Turkic" settlements against the West by itself. Which is difficult, as the main fighting force of the Golden Horde is their nomadic population which is in the steppes; and the Horde did not have garrison troops to speak of.
Then again the Steppes go as far as Poland…
IOTL the border with the Tartar Khanates served a very important function in the formation of Russian identity and unification during the early modern period. With a greater integration between the tartar horde and Russian kingdoms, things will go different.
Yet it seems that previous to the ousting of the Mongols, the main engine for centralization in Muscovy was competition with Lithuania and Novgorod. And the changes I suggest will cause more centralization during the late Middle Ages.
Russia is still going to have interests opposed to the Sultanate of Rom. With what OTL was the Crimean Khanate firmly under their control, thing will be even more one sided in the south.




Vasary https://app.box.com/s/kvvzr5z1o7stqtbmcdueej8ho6xzv6vr
Iranica article http://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/arab-iii
Martin https://app.box.com/s/ipxjvbgfgyxjewgjjjf88ewp7umdcnb6
Halperin https://app.box.com/s/nsozprdnglmu5jznmp9447radhacjclx
 
Interesting, it was my impression that while principalities in Northern and western Russia were more or less independent, the Golden Horde was quite adept at suppressing revolts.
Well, that was not what I would call suppressing revolts.
The more appropriate word is punitive expeditions.
The Russians misbehaved and the Mongols punished them - you know, burning to the ground, murdering, raping, looting, enslaving, the usual Mongol stuff.
The point is that before (suppressing revolts / punitive expeditions) there was a Russian administration. And after that there was a Russian administration.
Meaning no Mongols/Tartars in Russia on a permanent basis.

And that some eastern principalities like Muscovy paid a tribute to the Mongol hordes up until the late 15th century.
My point was that there were not Mongol tax collectors in Russia.
The Russians themselves collected this tribute and sent it to the Golden Horde.
That is a slight difference but it is important for our discussion.


The latter produce political relationships, OTL we already have a substantial amount of those, Tartars were settling as far as Lithuania proper, Lipka tartars.
They seem to have maintained a similar position as their equivalents in Anatolia.
That is a bad example.
The Lipka Tartars were refugees from the Mongol Khanates or prisoners of war or something like that. They were not settling; they were settled by their (Lithuanian) masters. Nothing like Anatolian Turks who were proud conquerors.
And it was in Lithuania, that was not North-Eastern (Great) Russia.
Which makes it pretty much irrelevant.

At this point Russians are more advanced and developed than the Mongols yet the same can be said of the Roman example, and of the Arabs in relation to both romans and Persians. It would not be the first instance of Pontic steppemen taking over more complex urbanized societies.
In theory in ATL (with an assistance of some extraterrestrial flying mammals) - yes, it is possible.
In practice it did not happen. And it was not for the lack of trying from the Mongol/Tartar part. The problem was that the (North-Eastern, so called 'great') Russians were a 'bad' people (like in 'bad' dog) - they murdered any representatives of the Golden Horde who tried to stay in Russia on a permanent basis.

OTL some tartars did usurp lands
nope.
At least nothing like the Arab settlers had done.

Then nearby rural Russians, and Tartars settle there for economic reasons and take to some of the customs of the Muslims, with a large minority converting to Islam.
The Muslims trying to domineer in Russia and converting the Russians to Islam?
That is a perfect recipe for a nice massacre.

I admit my knowledge of the tartar horde is murky at best
If you look at the maps of the Golden Horde you will see that usually the 'Russian parts' of the Golden Horde are in different color. Even on the western maps.
And that is for a reason.
It was a vassal territory.
In order to settle it with the Muslim Turkic Tartars you have to make it fully conquered territory.
I do not insist that this would be impossible, but it would differ things greatly and first thing it makes this territory useless and lost to the Golden Horde (see my previous post).
 
Well, that was not what I would call suppressing revolts.
The more appropriate word is punitive expeditions.
The Russians misbehaved and the Mongols punished them - you know, burning to the ground, murdering, raping, looting, enslaving, the usual Mongol stuff.
The point is that before (suppressing revolts / punitive expeditions) there was a Russian administration. And after that there was a Russian administration.
Meaning no Mongols/Tartars in Russia on a permanent basis.

My point was that there were not Mongol tax collectors in Russia.
The Russians themselves collected this tribute and sent it to the Golden Horde.
That is a slight difference but it is important for our discussion.

This is an interesting concern, now that I think about it; the administration in most Mongol successor states was native, and they ended up assimilating. Northern Russia lacked such administrative structures, and the pontic steppe favored a similar passionaria(sp?) as their home regions, causing them to stagnate… mmmm



That is a bad example.
The Lipka Tartars were refugees from the Mongol Khanates or prisoners of war or something like that. They were not settling; they were settled by their (Lithuanian) masters. Nothing like Anatolian Turks who were proud conquerors.
And it was in Lithuania, that was not North-Eastern (Great) Russia.
Which makes it pretty much irrelevant.

Point taken



In theory in ATL (with an assistance of some extraterrestrial flying mammals) - yes, it is possible.
In practice it did not happen. And it was not for the lack of trying from the Mongol/Tartar part. The problem was that the (North-Eastern, so called 'great') Russians were a 'bad' people (like in 'bad' dog) - they murdered any representatives of the Golden Horde who tried to stay in Russia on a permanent basis.
I’m not convinced by this explanation seems to ad hoc.

nope.
At least nothing like the Arab settlers had done.
Well Turks in Anatolia took several centuries to take over a much smaller area. And we saw for example the Crimean Khanate taking over some of the formerly Kievan Rus’ lands. But by the early modern period Russians will have the demographic advantage… mmm


The Muslims trying to domineer in Russia and converting the Russians to Islam?
That is a perfect recipe for a nice massacre.
Not at all, but rather, some Tartars are giving the Russians reasons to kick them out like OTL. The Khan decides that it may be easier to issue a prohibition and confining them to a triding post rather than sending another punitive expedition.
With time Muslim merchants from further south come and settle there, and so do craftsmen. Russians don’t mind since the trade post actually lessens the tributary burden, plus they are able to get trade goods. Some of them even settle in the trade post.
We have 2 centuries of economic growth to work with. Even at paltry growth rates that can become substantial, ad periods of advection from nearby Russian towns, eventually some trade posts may begin to compete with Rus’ cities others get annexed by Russians and punitive expeditions are sent.

It was a vassal territory.
In order to settle it with the Muslim Turkic Tartars you have to make it fully conquered territory.
I do not insist that this would be impossible, but it would differ things greatly and first thing it makes this territory useless and lost to the Golden Horde (see my previous post).

So let’s say the previous process only happens in peripheral areas of Russia, like Volga Bulgaria and some parts of the Ukraine. This new policy would pretty much ensure the Tartars would be unable to exert as much pressure on Muscovy as OTL, making it less aggressive. At the same time it leaves a more Muslim more urban society in the south, so when the Horde collapses, we end up with two Russias.


I have to agree with you this POV is messy…
 
the administration in most Mongol successor states was native
The local administration was.
The Mongols were the best empire-builders in the history of the humankind and their empires were governed in the cheapest and the most economical way - meaning sometimes only one Mongol official (not necessarily ethnic Mongol) for a 50 000 or so natives.
But if we are speaking about Russia...
... you see for the most part there was not a single representative of the Mongol administration in the Mongol Russia.
I mean not a single living soul belonging to the government of the Golden Horde.
Except for a few messengers maybe.
That makes Russia special. in the context of our discussion

And we saw for example the Crimean Khanate taking over some of the formerly Kievan Rus’ lands
It is irrelevant. These lands were usually made pastures suitable for the nomadic agriculture.

The Khan decides that it may be easier to issue a prohibition and confining them to a triding post rather than sending another punitive expedition.
try to realize the fact that the Russian lands were not a part of the Golden Horde in a strict sense. The only decision the Khan made is which of the Russian Princes would rule Russia and deliver the tribute to the Golden Horde.

So let’s say the previous process only happens in peripheral areas of Russia, like Volga Bulgaria and some parts of the Ukraine. This new policy would pretty much ensure the Tartars would be unable to exert as much pressure on Muscovy as OTL, making it less aggressive. At the same time it leaves a more Muslim more urban society in the south, so when the Horde collapses, we end up with two Russias.
Actually there were two Russias in OTL.
This "other Russia" you are speaking about is frontier territories but they are about 1% of the total population and the territory, so I would not speak about them.

Russians don’t mind since the trade post actually lessens the tributary burden, plus they are able to get trade goods. Some of them even settle in the trade post.
Orthodoxy. That is the key word when you are speaking about Russia of the period.
If the Russians smell the threat of Islamization or something like that, no advantageous are taken into consideration.
 
Last edited:
The local administration was.
The Mongols were the best empire-builders in the history of the humankind and their empires were governed in the cheapest and the most economical way - meaning sometimes only one Mongol official (not necessarily ethnic Mongol) for a 50 000 or so natives.
But if we are speaking about Russia...
... you see for the most part there was not a single representative of the Mongol administration in the Mongol Russia.
I mean not a single living soul belonging to the government of the Golden Horde.
Except for a few messengers maybe.
That makes Russia special. in the context of our discussion

I think I might have phrased my question incorrectly, why was it that way? Was it because unlike in China or Iran there wasn’t any centralized burocracy previous to the Mongols for them to overtake? Was Russian terrain too difficult for them?

Actually there were two Russias in OTL.
This "other Russia" you are speaking about is frontier territories but they are about 1% of the total population and the territory, so I would not speak about them.
Now this is a very good explanation. That seems to be a result of the respective carrying capacities of the 2 Russias, and I am all for geographical determinism. So that explanation is good enough for me. But since I’m rather enjoying our conversation, so I will note that, as you previously said, Mongols were at a demographic disadvantage everywhere…

It is irrelevant. These lands were usually made pastures suitable for the nomadic agriculture.
Yet the Ukraine is still the 3rd or 4th largest agricultural plain, the lands under direct control of the Golden Horde, should have a Carrying capacity similar to northern India or the US. Apparently IOTL agriculture was of relative importance to the Horde. They didn’t exploit this environment it seems to me, more too institutional inertia than anything else. Again some small changes, after 200 years of diffusion and economic growth could turn the tides of history.

Orthodoxy. That is the key word when you are speaking about Russia of the period.
If the Russians smell the threat of Islamization or something like that, no advantageous are taken into consideration.
When did this behavior set in? I always figured it rose as a result of centuries of hostile border interaction with Muslim nomads. That is why the Justification for my 3 PODs was thus making the Muslims less nomadic. But now I see one has to go further back.



Thanks man. I like that kind of song.
Now I feel a bit silly for not gogoling it before asking… i thought it was something more obscure.
 
Last edited:
When did this behavior set in? I always figured it rose as a result of centuries of hostile border interaction with Muslim nomads.
The feeling that "we, Russians, are the last (true) Christians in this world" was there before the Mongols.

And you'd be surprised but the 'hostile interactions' with Muslim Golden Horde were not a threat to the Russian Orthodox Christianity. It was a threat to the Russian property, security, health, freedom, sexual integrity, life, whatever.
But the Muslim Golden Horde never ever(!) threatened the Russian religion.
The Muslim Mongols even helped the Russians to fight against the (Catholic) Heretic Western Christians.

go figure...
 
Top