Post 1905 Sanity Options For Czarist Russia

[AkhenatenOrRamses]

Kind of riffing off the recent spate of "Sanity Options" threads...but, assuming a POD after the 1905 revolution (i.e., the establishment of the Duma and the 1906 constitution), what-realistically-could the Imperial government have done to avoid overthrow in the future? Some things, obviously, are beyond seeing at the time (shoot Lenin before he goes into exile), or simply not possible (industrialize to Germany-level by 1914), or miss the point entirely (preemptively abdicate in favor of Worker's Soviets in 1907). Nicholas may have to roll all natural 20's, but what were the options that could realistically have been on the table to roll for?

And, if there have been any threads in the past covering this, please let me know!

The big one would be to avoid WWI as it occured in OTL, but there are much bigger long term foundational problems stemming from Nicholas himself. He's a big believer in the divine right of kings and listens to a wife who in turn is in the thrall of a religious snake oil salesman.

Nicholas dying between 1906-14 is probably enough to keep the monarchy in some way (even with democratic revolution) as his brother Michael is the most obvious regent for Alexei. With that, you remove Alix and Rasputin from their positions for the most part and their negative influences at court. @Chadwick Lightningrod makes a good point about allying with Bulgaria, but I don't see why they'd need to drop the Serbian alliance entirely as well.

 

[gradje]

For example, one can say that, if the USSR had reorganized itself as a unitary (rather than federal) state and ethnically cleansed the Baltic countries, Ukraine, etc. and recolonized them all with settlers from Moscow and other Russophone cities, the breakup of the USSR would have been much harder.

The USSR just as much continued Russification policies. It's why Estonia has a rather large Russian population still nowadays. Khrushchev handing over the Crimea to the Ukrainian SSR was a measure meant to Russify Ukraine.

but I don't see why they'd need to drop the Serbian alliance entirely as well.

Macedonia ofcourse. But besides Russia Serbia has no other power to turn to. So keeping Serbian ambitions in check would probably lead to WW1 not even beginning in 1914 but maybe half a decade later.

As for sanity options, I can't place the exact date of the Anglo-Russian rapproachment, but my mind says 1907. Ofcourse it would require Russia abandoning its alliance with France, but a rapproachment with Germany seems pretty sane to me. Russia has ambitions in a lot of places but it could probably work something out with Berlin.

 

[naraic]

@Chadwick Lightningrod makes a good point about allying with Bulgaria, but I don't see why they'd need to drop the Serbian alliance entirely as well.

Macedonia ofcourse.

I disagree here.

I think the Balkan league can be held together as Russian Allies.

Macedonia only became everyone's red line once it was it was made clear to the Balkan league that nothing else was available as a prize.

The Russians of course threatened to send the Russian fleet to defend Ottoman Constantinople if the Bulgarians threatened it.

The concert of great powers came together and convinced Serbia and Greece that Albania should be an "independent" state.

This left Macedonia as the only prize and everyone scrambling for it.

Had the Balkan league gotten their prizes elsewhere I think that there would be a lot less friction over Macedonia.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

For a start Nicholas must keep his word after 1905 revolution and not do everything he can to turn the clock back. It would help if read a few histories of the English Civil Wars in the 17th century and stopped acting like Charles I.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

The USSR just as much continued Russification policies. It's why Estonia has a rather large Russian population still nowadays.

I disagree, it's simply that Russians were the largest population of the USSR, there are a lot of Russians in other ex-Soviet countries because when part of one country you are more likely to go where there are more opportunities but it's not because they wanted to Russify the country.

Khrushchev handing over the Crimea to the Ukrainian SSR was a measure meant to Russify Ukraine.

My understanding of it is that he handed over Ukraine because his powerbase was there and he was therefore strengthening his allies.

 

[Lalli]

For a start Nicholas must keep his word after 1905 revolution and not do everything he can to turn the clock back. It would help if read a few histories of the English Civil Wars in the 17th century and stopped acting like Charles I.

Him should had indeed do that but he just didn't understand that times were changing and him and Russia had change too. Perhaps if Nicholas II is enforced to accept such constitution which really limit his powers. But on such case he probably would ratherly abdicate than accept such consitution.

And even he would had read (and might be that he already knew) about Charles I of England but he hardly would had been able to learn anything beside that him has ensure army being 100% loyal for him.

 

[gradje]

My understanding of it is that he handed over Ukraine because his powerbase was there and he was therefore strengthening his allies.

This is true as well. It helped placate the restless Ukrainians and helped secure their backing of Khrushchev in the era where his rule over the Soviet Union wasn't secure yet. But the USSR's relationship with its component republics and ethnicities is complicated. From indiginization to surpression and Russification carried over from the Russian Empire. The Crimea at the time of the handover was for the majority inhabited by Russians. If you want to keep dissident Ukrainian nationalist voices to a minimum, you "dilute" their voice by increasing the Russian component of that republic. During the 60'ies (so after the handover) the number of Russians in Ukraine increased from 7 to 9 million, the number of Ukrainians increased from 32 to 35 million, a disproportionate growth for the Russian section. On top of this is also a continued surpression of the Ukrainian language.

I disagree, it's simply that Russians were the largest population of the USSR, there are a lot of Russians in other ex-Soviet countries because when part of one country you are more likely to go where there are more opportunities but it's not because they wanted to Russify the country.

This is fair as well. I'm not too familiar with the Baltics, but the Donbass saw a large amount of migration from the Moscow region simply because of the heavy industry there.

I disagree here.

I think the Balkan league can be held together as Russian Allies.

Macedonia only became everyone's red line once it was it was made clear to the Balkan league that nothing else was available as a prize.

The Russians of course threatened to send the Russian fleet to defend Ottoman Constantinople if the Bulgarians threatened it.

The concert of great powers came together and convinced Serbia and Greece that Albania should be an "independent" state.

This left Macedonia as the only prize and everyone scrambling for it.

Had the Balkan league gotten their prizes elsewhere I think that there would be a lot less friction over Macedonia.

The topic here is Russian sanity options. So other powers will still act roughly the same. Austria simply is never going to let Serbia (and by extension Greece) have such large chunks of Albania. Both Austria and Italy are interested in a as large as possible Albania and will demand Serbia and Greece vacate the lands they occupied in the wake of the First Balkan War, especially any port Serbia captures in northern Albania. The Constantinople question is more open ended IMO. Britain has less of a need to back the Ottomans up by this point, but Russia or a Russian ally seizing the straits will still make the alarms go off in London. Russia throwing its weight around in the First Balkan War will not be enough to secure enough land for its allies so that they do not go to war with eachother. The other great powers of Europe simply would not allow it

 

[Greg Grant]

Short of having a crystal ball and gazing into the future, there is not much they could have done given who they were. 1905 did give them a scare, yes. And there were rational people near the seat of power who were prepared to tack one way or another, but they are dealing with a system whose main power brokers seemingly cannot tell apart a bomb-throwing anarchist from a debating-school socialist from a constitutional democrat. To the powers that be, any change, surrendering even an ounce of Tsarist regime authority (real or wholly imaginary by this point) was tantamount to advocating cannibalism. The Duma could have been a realistic launch point for reasonable change. But it never stood a chance.

Not with Nicky, not with his wife, and not with the hordes of people around them who had a vested interest in pretending the system worked.

 

[CHKeeley]

This is true as well. It helped placate the restless Ukrainians and helped secure their backing of Khrushchev in the era where his rule over the Soviet Union wasn't secure yet. But the USSR's relationship with its component republics and ethnicities is complicated. From indiginization to surpression and Russification carried over from the Russian Empire. The Crimea at the time of the handover was for the majority inhabited by Russians. If you want to keep dissident Ukrainian nationalist voices to a minimum, you "dilute" their voice by increasing the Russian component of that republic. During the 60'ies (so after the handover) the number of Russians in Ukraine increased from 7 to 9 million, the number of Ukrainians increased from 32 to 35 million, a disproportionate growth for the Russian section. On top of this is also a continued surpression of the Ukrainian language.

Do you have any source to back this up? As far as I'm aware, the move did more to provoke angry reactions from Russian nationalists than it did as some project for suppressing Ukraine. It certainly was both a supposed 'benevolent gift' and intended to tie Russian strategic interests towards an eternal brotherhood with a Ukrainian state, but I don't recall having ever seen it discussed in terms of an attempt to russify Ukraine or dilute the ethnic composition of the republic. More than anything, I think Khrushchev himself saw it as both shoring up his own base and a gift the republic he was raised in and was fond of.

 

[Sarthak]

There is really no need to do anything other than make the 1905 reforms be actually genuine. While many of the economic and social reforms were genuine the political reforms weren't and that directly led to the revolution in 1917. Russia was economically doing well for itself in 1914 before ww1. If its political situation reflected the same situation, then as Britain, America and Germany feared the 20th century would have most likely been the Russian Century.

 

[gradje]

Do you have any source to back this up? As far as I'm aware, the move did more to provoke angry reactions from Russian nationalists than it did as some project for suppressing Ukraine. It certainly was both a supposed 'benevolent gift' and intended to tie Russian strategic interests towards an eternal brotherhood with a Ukrainian state, but I don't recall having ever seen it discussed in terms of an attempt to russify Ukraine or dilute the ethnic composition of the republic. More than anything, I think Khrushchev himself saw it as both shoring up his own base and a gift the republic he was raised in and was fond of.

I'm taking this from Luc and Tina Pauwel's work on Ukraine. It's a very abridged history meant for a total layman and recieved a new print (and accompanying title) after the 2022 Russian invasion. IMO it's a very balanced work which at the same time defends Ukraine's right of national existance (often denied) but also adresses the inherent link it enjoys with Belarus and Russia, but also how these links are often abused and how Ukraine is, because of its complicated history, locked in a situation where it does in fact encompass a large Russian, Russophone and Russophile population. It also explicitly states that the Crimea was not in any way associated with Ukraine up untill it was added to the SSR by Krushchev and how because of that it is likely to remain Russian (written before 2022). I will quote the two paragraphs from the end of chapter 28 which are most relevant to this.

Vanaf het eind van 1950 wordt Oekraïne weer onderworpen aan een politiek van russificatie en, erger nog, van Russische kolonisatie. Gedurende de jaren 1960 verhoogt het bevolkingsaantal van etnisch Russische Oekraïners van 7 naar 9 miljoen inwoners, wat in verhouding een veel belangrijkere stijging is dan de etnisch Oekraïnse bevolking, die slechts met 3 miljoen vermeerdert, van 32 naar 35 miljoen. Tijdens de laatste jaren van Stalin worden Oekraïnse schrijvers, journalisten en intellectuelen getroffen door talrijke zuiveringsmaatregelen.

In 1954 schenkt Chroesjtsjov ter gelegenheid van de 300-jarige herdenking van het akkoord van Perejaslav de Krim aan Oekraïne. Aangezien dit soort cadeaus meer dan uitzonderlijk was in de Sovjettijd, heeft men zich lange tijd afgevraagd wat de dieperliggende redenen waren van dit gebaar. Er zijn er twee. Vermits de in 1945 gedeporteerde Tataren uitsluitend waren vervangen door Russen, draagt de aanhechting van de Krim aan Oekraïne bij tot de russificatie van het land. Anderzijds, vleide deze uitbreiding van het Oekraïnse grondgebied het patriottische gevoel van de gefrustreede Oekraïners. Ondertussen had Chroesjtsjov nog maar net Stalin opgevolgd, die op 5 maart 1953 was overleden, en had hij de onvoorwaardelijke steun nodig van zijn Oekraïnse basis. Zijn gezag was nog helemaal niet gestabiliseerd.

As for my own and probably flawed translation

From the end of 1950 onwards Ukraine is again subjegated to a policy of russification and, worse still, of Russian colonisation. During the 1960'ies the number of ethnic Russian Ukrainians multiplies from 7 to 9 million, which is in comparison a much more important increase that the Ukrainian population, which merely increases with 3 million, from 32 to 35 million. During the last years of Stalin Ukrainian writers, journalits and intellectuals are hit by countless cleansing measures.

In 1954 Krushchev gifts the Crimea to Ukraine for the occasion of the 300th anniversary of the Pereiaslav Agreement. Seeing as these kinds of gifts were more than extraordinary in the Soviet era, people have long asked what the deeper reason was for this sign. There are two. Since the in 1945 deported Tatars have been exclusively exchanged for Russians, the attachment of the Crimea to Ukraine adds to the russification of the country. Secondly, this expansion of Ukrainian territory flattered the patriottic feeling of many frustrated Ukrainians. Meanwhile Krushchev had only just succeeded Stalin, who had died on the 5th of March 1953, and he needed the unconditional support of his Ukrainian base. His authority had not yet fully stabilized.

In the same spirit of the 1905 reforms being genuine, Russia could also start to let go of russification. Stop seeing Ukrainian and Belarussian as defective forms of Russian/mere dialects and move closer to a genuine pan-slavic (con)federation. Stolypin's assasination is often cited as something that stopped reformist tendencies in Russia, and taking better care of the Russian Empire's constituent nationalities, at least the (East) Slavic ones may take enough wind out of the sails to prevent his murder.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Stolypin's assasination is often cited as something that stopped reformist tendencies in Russia

AFAIK by the time he was assassinated Stolypin had lost the favor of Nicky II, hadn't he been shot he would've probably been sacked soon after.

 

[Karelian]

Get the reformist middle class on board again by giving the Duma and zemstvos genuine power. Instill a martial law to Grand Duchy of Finland to remove the terrorist safe haven from the outskirts of Petrograd. Offer a land reform to calm the Finns down.

Continue the Stolypin land reform plans.

Keep focusing on Bulgaria as the primary regional client at the Balkans.

 

[Seandineen]

Expand the Finnish Imperial Senate to co opt Mannerheim and his buddies

 

[Karelian]

Expand the Finnish Imperial Senate to co opt Mannerheim and his buddies

Mannerheim has nothing to do with Finnish politics in 1905, he is an aspiring imperial cavalry officer and does not even live in the Grand Duchy.

 

[Miss Construction]

Shoot Rasputin.
Shoot Lenin.
Shoot Rasputin again, just to be sure.

Poison, shoot, then throw in a frozen river Rasputin. Then do it again just to be sure lol.

 

[Seandineen]

Mannerheim has nothing to do with Finnish politics in 1905, he is an aspiring imperial cavalry officer and does not even live in the Grand Duchy.

Ok, but He obviously is a man of talent. The Tzar has too many sycophants and hangers on. A man like Mannerheim could guide his better instincts.

 

[Lalli]

Ok, but He obviously is a man of talent. The Tzar has too many sycophants and hangers on. A man like Mannerheim could guide his better instincts.

Mannerheim was just one of several generals in Russian army. Tsar would has yet find him. Furthermore Mannerheim even hadn't lived in Finland at this point in many years and he even begun seriously learn Finnish only just after he was turned 50, soon after Finland gained independence. At this point and actually rest of his life Mannerheim's first language was Swedish.

And whilst Mannerheim was good as general not so sure had him really much political skills. In OTL only purely political office what he held was acting as Finnish president 1.5 years at end of Continuation War and most of business was on hands of career politicians.

On that time in Finland had much better politicians who knew Finland and could speak language of majority of the country.

 

[Karl the Writer]

Firstly, the peasantry. Embrace land reform as much as possible. Tsar Nicholas is going to need to restore as much credibility with the peasantry as possible after 1905 and this is the most ideal way to do so. The peasantry will support anyone who supports land reform, and enacting widespread land reform will check rural revolutionaries. The farms likely won't be the most efficient, but that comes later. Also, abolish the land captain system: peasants see it as a continuation of serfdom and it has no real benefit. Replace it with a dedicated rural police force recruited from the local area and give them enough funding to be effective. Place them under strict commands to always address people by the formal 'you' in Russian. Also, connect accepting the new police system with land reform. as that would be really the only way to make it palatable to a peasant populace used to solving matters with their own form of (often brutal) justice. The old governor system with nobles appointed from Petrograd is abolished. They will be elected.

Secondly, industrial workers. Bringing this group onto the side of the Tsar is going to be difficult. Many of the industrial workers lean Socialist, especially after 1905 and the sabotaging of Father Gapon's non-communist religious trade union movement and the fighting during the 1905 revolution. Best bet is to try and improve the workers rights in the country and provide avenues for affecting change. Legalize strikes and crack down on attempts by businesses to crush said strikes. Put pressure on companies to compromise with workers. Also work on improving sanitary conditions. Clean the streets, minimize outbreaks of waterborne diseases through sewer systems. Also, court a movement willing to cooperate with the Tsar in regards to workers rights, primarily through...

Courting the Duma. The Duma established post 1905 was consistently undermined by the Tsar, who held widely known contempt for the legislative body. If we are to optimize Russia in this time he would have to court the deputies in the Duma, especially the SRs and the Kadets. A working relationship needs to be established wherein the Tsar constantly meets with and discusses matters of policy with leaders of all parties. Nicholas needs to make sure that the Duma holds actual responsibility and feels as though it influences the course of the state. Otherwise it will become a glorified tribunal for the Tsarist state. Through cutting the red tape that purposely stifled the growth of businesses in Russia and the granting of political freedoms, the liberals would likely be satisfied with the Tsar. Through those and the policies I listed in the paragraphs above, the socialists would be sated for now. Also, Nicholas needs to give up political power. He is no longer the Supreme Autocrat of All the Russias. He is the Tsar of Russia, with the same powers as the German Kaiser. This with a copious amount of symbolic and not so symbolic acts aimed at improving Russia's image. The Peter and Paul Fortress, the 'Russian Bastille' is destroyed by Duma suggestion and its prisoners freed, things like that.

Minority policy. Stop Russification. Allow for freedom of religion and emancipate the Jews. Allow for publications to be written in minority languages and mandate that officials in a given region actually know the language of the people they govern. Give regions such as the Baltics, Poland, Finland, the Caucasus, and maybe Ukraine the same rights Finland has. Even give the Poles a separate state that shares Nicholas as a monarch. Crack down hard on pogroms and political violence. Keep anti semites out of office and prevent things like the Beiliss Affar from happening.

Foreign policy. Don't even think about starting WW1. Concentrate on staying at peace.

 

[lynxpt]

Kind of riffing off the recent spate of "Sanity Options" threads...but, assuming a POD after the 1905 revolution (i.e., the establishment of the Duma and the 1906 constitution), what-realistically-could the Imperial government have done to avoid overthrow in the future? Some things, obviously, are beyond seeing at the time (shoot Lenin before he goes into exile), or simply not possible (industrialize to Germany-level by 1914), or miss the point entirely (preemptively abdicate in favor of Worker's Soviets in 1907). Nicholas may have to roll all natural 20's, but what were the options that could realistically have been on the table to roll for?

And, if there have been any threads in the past covering this, please let me know!

@alexmilman
As our Russian expert, do you have any thoughts on this?