Sidebar. Then back to lessons learned and applied to Alaska.
Ie obviously Amagi is ready first so does it get to fight Alaska in a POW at Denmark straight like state not fully worked up and acting like its still peacetime...
That is an interesting comparison. The South Dakota was not worked up when she fought at Second Guadalcanal in a meeting engagement. The comparison to Denmark Strait has occurred to me on occasion, but I never thought about a South Dakota/Washington switch to that scenario to a logical conclusion in the absence of the decisive air component. Lee and his crews were better than Holland and his crews in gunnery and maneuver, but that still does not mean SoDak gets out alive. Abe was decently competent and Kondo was "average" as admirals in their surface gun actions; so there is a major quality upgrade on the enemy leadership side. Lutjens and Lindemann, it could be argued, were at loggerheads and not too good at Denmark Strait; either in their merge tactics or in the aftermath in letting PoW escape. Ship-handling for such small actions counts for so much. Like Constitution and Guerriere, ya know? Lee would have murdered Lutjens in the midst of the German confusion.
Lessons learned applied.
a. the Japanese can shoot extremely well. So could the Germans.
b. their guns while powerful, threw defective shells (as did the German naval artillery.).
c. admirals do matter. Japanese admirals seemed to have been more trained than German ones though William Marschall was no slouch.
d. men matter more than ships; if the ships survive long enough to get their shots in. Trained men especially for Hei was a tough kill. Her crew fought to the death in the aftermath. Kirishima, with her dud crew of rejects, by contrast, sort of threw in the towel after being hit less hard than the SoDak. Note how hard Bismarck fought and yet how quickly her morale factors caused her to die when cornered?
e. based on d. DESIGN actually matters, but not in the way one thinks.
SoDak and Washington wore thinner armor than PoW, and were kind of like Hood that way; but were more survivable than PoW and Hood once hit. That kind of goes to a FRENCH philosophy of beam (side to side in a ship) compartmentation as opposed to Anglo-Japanese length (bow to stern transverse) compartmentation. When Japanese ships flooded they LEANED OVER instead of settled evenly. Americans took advantage of that known defect. Oddly the Japanese did, too, against the British. How that applies to Bismarck is that she wore lots of armor and had an excellent float bubble, too, but was quick and easy to kill because her internal layout was "defective" in that her protection scheme did not protect the float bubble or her internal control systems.
f. chance matters. One shot kills did in Hood and PoW. Hei and Kirishima had to be bludgeoned. Bismarck was bludgeoned; but a one shot mission-killed her before Rodney ever did. SoDak was swiss-cheesed and took an electrical own goal in addition; because of an incompetent damage control mistake. "Luck" is a Bismarck attribute that many people claim looks out for Americans, it seems; but maybe training, a bit of forethought and the factors a to e. explain these outcomes better?
So, in any fight between Amagi and Alaska, one has to determine who leads, how well are the crews trained, who did due diligence on the ammunition and ship design, who else is invited to the party and where and when is that party held?
Based on the above? (^^^)
I think
any fight is still only really 25%-40% v 60-75% chance to win?
I put my money on the Japanese before April 1943 and on the Americans AFTER April 1943.
Once the Japanese have the Souvenir of Guadalcanal, they are no damned good aside from Tanaka and Ozawa and THEY KNOW IT.